3 ms·
I decided to do a Google newspaper archive survey just to see what people were saying back then. I'll be honest, the articles seem pretty close to the mark from
by soundwave106 9y ago
I decided to do a Google newspaper archive survey just to see what people were saying back then. I'll be honest, the articles seem pretty close to the mark from what I see.
For instance, a 1988 article says scientists warn that pollutants already have committed the planet in "30 years to 50 year to its highest temperatures in 10,000 years"; in 2017 I would say that (based on our reconstructed temperature estimates) this prediction is likely (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record_of_the_past_1000_years https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record_of_the_past...).
There is an article in 1983 predicting a 3.6 degree rise by 2040 (https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1928&dat=19831019&id=oHsgAAAAIBAJ&sjid=t2cFAAAAIBAJ&pg=1897,2698157 https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1928&dat=19831019&id=...) and one in 1982 predicting a 4 to 5 degree temperature rise in 50 years (https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1946&dat=19820326&id=AYc1AAAAIBAJ&sjid=96QFAAAAIBAJ&pg=4891,1722612 https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1946&dat=19820326&id=...). Being American articles, you convert Fahrenheit to Celsius; this seems very consistent with modern predictions on the climate. The current temperature anomaly is about 1C (https://www2.ucar.edu/climate/faq/what-average-global-temperature-now); https://www2.ucar.edu/climate/faq/what-average-global-temper... an additional 1C by 2040-2050 is within the scope of current climate change models, as far as I know.
I don't doubt that there were some people that projected overly pessimistic doomsday scenarios of flooded cities by the end of 2000 (though to be honest most of the articles I'm encountering more warn of 2100), but for me this is actually is an interesting confirmation; even 30 years ago, the scientists had a model in place that has proven to be way more resilient than some of the deniers would have it.