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if the warlords, after having gotten billions of dollars of aid from the US and tens of thousands of western soldiers helping them, still haven't been able to d
by swombat 16y ago
if the warlords, after having gotten billions of dollars of aid from the US and tens of thousands of western soldiers helping them, still haven't been able to defeat the Taliban, how large must the disparity be
I don't think that's a fair statement. "Defeating" the Taliban, which are basically an insurgency, in a country twice the size of Germany and filled with mountains and deserts, takes a lot more than military skill or firepower. I think that the military skill is in fact secondary in that battle. The political skill is far more important. As long as the Taliban are effective in convincing local farmers to support them, they'll be there, no matter how skilled the handful of soldiers on the other side.
- InclinedPlane 16y agoIn a country twice the size of Germany plus another bit of countryside in Pakistan the same size. If the Taliban were able to be 100% contained within the borders of Afghanistan they would have been utterly smashed and destroyed as a movement of any consequence years ago.
- gjm11 16y agoHow do you know?
- jessriedel 16y agoLike gjm, I'd also like to know what makes you think this.
- ilconsigliere 16y agohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pashtunistan http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pashtunistan + http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6e/Major_ethnic_groups_of_Pakistan_in_1980.jpg/620px-Major_ethnic_groups_of_Pakistan_in_1980.jpg http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6e/Maj...
- jessriedel 16y agoI understand that regions in Pakistan have offered refuge for the Taliban. What I don't understand is how one could be confident that this has been essential to the survival of the Taliban.
- gwern 16y agoWhen the Taliban was smashed in the post-9/11 invasion, where do you think Osama bin Laden and the Taliban hierarchy escaped to, to rest & recuperate & reinfiltrate into Afghanistan?
- jessriedel 16y agoAgain, I just don't understand what the evidence is for the claim that Pakistan was key, vs. there being sub-optimal substitute hide-aways in Afghanistan. In other words, just because I drive a Honda to work doesn't mean that if Honda went out of business I wouldn't be able to get to work. I'd just buy a different (perhaps less reliable) car.
- gwern 16y agoSee http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Tora_Bora http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Tora_Bora What 'sub-optimal' hide-away was available to bin Laden?
- MichaelSalib 16y agoSure, the Taliban have far more political skill than the current warlord government. Which bodes well for their long term prospects.
- jbooth 16y agoThe Taliban have a lower bar. If they create some violence, then by definition they're succeeding and the government's failing. The government has a much harder job to do.
- MichaelSalib 16y agoI don't think this is true at all. There is a tendency amongst westerners to assume that the official government is inherently legitimate. But legitimacy is earned, not granted by the 101st Airborne Division. You are the legitimate government of an area if you have an effective monopoly on the use of force in the area, if you provide vital social services, if you perform dispute resolution, etc. In significant parts of Afghanistan, the Taliban are seen as the legitimate government while the children from Kabul are seen as inept crooks. In those areas, random violence undermines the Taliban's goals: once you've convinced people that you're the legitimate governing authority, you have to keep them satisfied, and random violence makes constituents very unhappy. The same confusion often erupts when people consider southern Lebanon.
- jbooth 16y agoI certainly didn't say that the government is inherently legitimate -- I was agreeing with you, and the comparison to Lebanon's government is a decent one (although nothing is as ridiculous as the confessional system). Regarding random violence in the places that the Taliban hold sway.. well ok. But highly specific violence is certainly a part of their toolkit.