4 ms·

I mean, within a month of my moving to San Francisco somebody got shot and killed on my street corner. And within the first two months I saw police barricade an

by Swizec 10y ago

I mean, within a month of my moving to San Francisco somebody got shot and killed on my street corner. And within the first two months I saw police barricade an intersection walking around with shotguns and automatic rifles due to a bank robbery of some sort. We were told to just walk around and in general nobody seemed to find this event to be anything special. I've since stopped paying attention to these things. Better that way. Feels more peaceful. Then again, just last week a guy got shot by police in broad daylight 3 blocks from me because he was actively in the process of stabbing someone. No running gun battles yet that I know of. It's been 2 years or so.

Turing_Machine 10y ago
Here is the thing: your neighborhood is only a very, very, very small portion of the United States. in 2014, 2% of the counties in the United States accounted for about 51% of the murders, and 54% of the counties had zero murders.
- dragonwriter 10y ago
  > in 2014, 2% of the counties in the United States accounted for about 51% of the murders, But what percent of the population did those counties represent? "Counties" are fairly arbitrary divisions, after all. New York County, NY (better known as the burrough of Manhattan) has a population of around 1.6 million. Kalawao County, HI has a population of 89. It doesn't really make sense to compare homicide counts by county.
  - Turing_Machine 10y ago
    "It doesn't really make sense to compare homicide counts by county." It does if you're a tourist needlessly worrying about getting gunned down while you're visiting the Grand Canyon, or a student needlessly worried that you're going to encounter open gang warfare in a small midwestern college town. As it happens, the worst 1% of counties have about 19% of the population but about 37% of the murders, so it's not just that these counties are more heavily populated. They really are more dangerous. Even within those counties, murders are heavily concentrated by neighborhood. Edit: here's a map that lets you zoom down to the individual census block level, and which shows the rate (thus controlling for population). Note how much of the country is in the 0-50 category. http://nation.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/splash/index.html?appid=8125e8f4244a47d986f4cd840824eef3 http://nation.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/splash/index.html...
    - whiddershins 10y ago
      wait is that map weighted per capita?
      - ghaff 10y ago
        It appears not. Nor does it account for the severity of the crime among the included indexes. ADDED: I misread. Does seem to be a rate. Not totally clear to me how per capita adds. On the one hand it captures the family member or neighbor known person assault. On the other hand, it's not terribly comforting to know that there are lots of murders somewhere but there are lots of people so you'll probably be OK.
        nostrademons 10y ago
        It sounded like it was weighted by population (i.e. it compares the crime rate, not the total number of crimes), but it doesn't weight by the severity of the crime. Colma has an index equal to or worse than most of Oakland, which only makes sense if there's some form of population-weighting, since Colma has only 1500 or so living inhabitants (and doesn't have a particularly bad reputation for crime, except for most "residents" being already dead when they get to Colma).
      - deleted 10y ago
        [deleted]
    - vacri 10y ago
      > It does if you're a tourist needlessly worrying about getting gunned down while you're visiting the Grand Canyon This kind of example is really stacking the deck. It's not like there are real people out there being tourists and getting scared of being involved in a drive-by at the Grand Canyon. > As it happens, the worst 1% of counties have about 19% of the population but about 37% of the murders, so it's not just that these counties are more heavily populated. They really are more dangerous. Urban areas with higher population densities have higher crime. Fact of life. Rub people together more often and they'll cross each other more often. In any case, when 1% of the counties hold 1 in 5 members of the public, it's a gross mischaracterisation to call them 'a very, very, very small portion of the United States'
- kmonsen 10y ago
  Interesting, where do you have those stats from?
- brownbat 10y ago
  Just occurred to me that I've lived in the US for decades and have never heard gunfire (outside of a range), and have never seen any violent crime despite working in a few major cities. Not disputing crime exists, but just, this place is vast, so there are lots of different experiences.
wtvanhest 10y ago
You likely live in the Mission, one of the worst neighborhoods for gun violence in the United States.

by Swizec 10y ago

Turing_Machine 10y ago

Here is the thing: your neighborhood is only a very, very, very small portion of the United States. in 2014, 2% of the counties in the United States accounted for about 51% of the murders, and 54% of the counties had zero murders.

dragonwriter 10y ago
> in 2014, 2% of the counties in the United States accounted for about 51% of the murders, But what percent of the population did those counties represent? "Counties" are fairly arbitrary divisions, after all. New York County, NY (better known as the burrough of Manhattan) has a population of around 1.6 million. Kalawao County, HI has a population of 89. It doesn't really make sense to compare homicide counts by county.
- Turing_Machine 10y ago
  "It doesn't really make sense to compare homicide counts by county." It does if you're a tourist needlessly worrying about getting gunned down while you're visiting the Grand Canyon, or a student needlessly worried that you're going to encounter open gang warfare in a small midwestern college town. As it happens, the worst 1% of counties have about 19% of the population but about 37% of the murders, so it's not just that these counties are more heavily populated. They really are more dangerous. Even within those counties, murders are heavily concentrated by neighborhood. Edit: here's a map that lets you zoom down to the individual census block level, and which shows the rate (thus controlling for population). Note how much of the country is in the 0-50 category. http://nation.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/splash/index.html?appid=8125e8f4244a47d986f4cd840824eef3 http://nation.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/splash/index.html...
  - whiddershins 10y ago
    wait is that map weighted per capita?
    - ghaff 10y ago
      It appears not. Nor does it account for the severity of the crime among the included indexes. ADDED: I misread. Does seem to be a rate. Not totally clear to me how per capita adds. On the one hand it captures the family member or neighbor known person assault. On the other hand, it's not terribly comforting to know that there are lots of murders somewhere but there are lots of people so you'll probably be OK.
      - nostrademons 10y ago
        It sounded like it was weighted by population (i.e. it compares the crime rate, not the total number of crimes), but it doesn't weight by the severity of the crime. Colma has an index equal to or worse than most of Oakland, which only makes sense if there's some form of population-weighting, since Colma has only 1500 or so living inhabitants (and doesn't have a particularly bad reputation for crime, except for most "residents" being already dead when they get to Colma).
    - deleted 10y ago
      [deleted]
  - vacri 10y ago
    > It does if you're a tourist needlessly worrying about getting gunned down while you're visiting the Grand Canyon This kind of example is really stacking the deck. It's not like there are real people out there being tourists and getting scared of being involved in a drive-by at the Grand Canyon. > As it happens, the worst 1% of counties have about 19% of the population but about 37% of the murders, so it's not just that these counties are more heavily populated. They really are more dangerous. Urban areas with higher population densities have higher crime. Fact of life. Rub people together more often and they'll cross each other more often. In any case, when 1% of the counties hold 1 in 5 members of the public, it's a gross mischaracterisation to call them 'a very, very, very small portion of the United States'
kmonsen 10y ago
Interesting, where do you have those stats from?
brownbat 10y ago
Just occurred to me that I've lived in the US for decades and have never heard gunfire (outside of a range), and have never seen any violent crime despite working in a few major cities. Not disputing crime exists, but just, this place is vast, so there are lots of different experiences.

wtvanhest 10y ago

You likely live in the Mission, one of the worst neighborhoods for gun violence in the United States.