8 ms·

As a European I see this as a huge concern. Choosing Macron means keeping the status quo, which means continued mass immigration, continued bad economic policy,

by wsc981 10y ago

As a European I see this as a huge concern. Choosing Macron means keeping the status quo, which means continued mass immigration, continued bad economic policy, etc... in Europe. I am sure the bankers will be glad as will the European Commission and the multinationals, but the common people will become disillusioned in a few years as more and more terrorist attacks will happen into Europe and the problems with the economic policy if the EU will become more visible (the mass printing of money by Draghi and forcing countries buy bad bonds to cover this pyramid scheme). But -for me personally- I'd say it's a good thing. As I stated before, choosing Macron means keeping up with the status quo and I intend to leave Europe for Asia next year (I have an Asian girlfriend and daughter). I do realise that if Le Pen would be chosen now there would be unrest in the Economic markets, the EU, etc... So for me personally it will be a good time to just make a bit more money before leaving permanently. In the end the choice for Macron will only delay the inevitable though. The EU is dead, it just doesn't realise it yet. The only problem is: the longer it takes for the EU to collapse, the messier it will become.

jjawssd 10y ago
How can one profit off of the collapse of the European Union?
- wsc981 10y ago
  Soros at one time hedged against the British Pound and he made much profit this way. Perhaps the same could be done w.r.t. the Euro? See: http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/george-soros-bank-of-england.asp http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/george-soros-bank...
  - petre 10y ago
    Soros hedged against the Pound/De-Mark peg. I have doubts it can be done to the Euro (too strong) but it can be done to another currency of a weaker economy pegged which to the Euro, for instance the Bulgarian Lev (BGN).
    - deleted 10y ago
      [deleted]
- wayn3 10y ago
  Do you want to know how YOU can profit or how people like Soros do it? If you're certain something declines in value, all you got to do is buy Put Options
- Boothroid 10y ago
  Sell heavily EU biased financial instruments, I guess, if you can find someone willing to let you short them.
- sparkling 10y ago
  Buy Inverse Equitiy ETFs that target european markets.
  - cm2187 10y ago
    That's betting against the ECB. Dangerous game.
    - sparkling 10y ago
      At some point, the ECB will have to face market realities.
      - ahakki 10y ago
        There is a saying that the market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent. esp. if you are betring against the ECB
orf 10y ago
I don't agree with the downvotes you are receiving, you make some good overall points (but also some bad ones). Nothing is dead until it is entirely dead, and the EU idea still runs strong in people. Things need to change, as Brexit and the recent problems faced by the union have shown. Now it's down to the time to reform. I don't think Macron is choosing the status quo though, hes as much as a political outsider as Trump and I hope he will make some progress in achieving reforms.
- Boothroid 10y ago
  A former Rothschild banker - surely part of the establishment, but perhaps a different part
  - cm2187 10y ago
    It's funny that he has this image of being a banker. This guy did all of his career at the ministry of finance or in a minister's staff, then went to monetize his address book for two years in a bank before coming back to politics. I don't really see him as a banker. I see him as a civil servant and a networking artist.
    - Boothroid 10y ago
      I am now better informed. Thank you.
- mtgx 10y ago
  What exactly "needs to change"? When I see people complain about the EU it's usually about "the EU taking their sovereignty and imposing stuff on them". So if "things are going to change" that means the EU would have to become less like the U.S. (a federal entity), and more like an aggregate of wildly different cultures and regulations (so more like the pre-EU Europe). Is that really a good thing? And do things "need to change" that way? Or is more education necessary about why the EU needs to become more homogeneous and less heterogeneous? I can say one thing - if EU states remain wildly different from each other in culture, language, and regulations, the EU will continue to remain a much less appealing market than the US. And it's not so much that the laws are "stricter" (like say the privacy ones), as it is about the laws being different in each country, and making it hard for a company to be compliant with all of them. And I think that means fewer options and fewer quality products for Europeans in the end (you'll be stuck with your locally-made products).
RobertoG 10y ago
The mass printing of money by Draghi is what saved the Euroarea. Even if it was not its job, the ECB was the only one that did anything. I agree with your feeling that the system is a mess and if there are not important changes it will explode.
_delirium 10y ago
I agree with this, and would add that I do not think Macron is even an especially skilled representative of the status quo. I hope I'm wrong, but I predict his administration will be inept in a way that makes FN more popular, not less, much as Hollande's administration was. I'm relieved, because there was one person running who was less suited to the office than Macron, and she didn't get elected, but that's a bit different than celebrating.
deanCommie 10y ago
Have you and your European friends tried actually addressing some of the racist beliefs you casually take for granted which lead you to discriminate against immigrants when it comes to integration into society? (They are always considered lesser, even after numerous generations in the country). Source: Am Canadian who moved to Europe 2 years ago and am constantly shocked by how racists Europeans are. I think part of the problem is that in Canada an immigrant is considered "Canadian" as soon as they get their citizenship. People are proud of their heritage, but nobody gets to claim superiority of citizenship. Whereas in Europe it seems that you are constantly defined by your ancestry, even after multiple generations.
- wsc981 10y ago
  Being in favour of strong immigration policies is not something racist I believe. Each European tax payer pays their respective governments for having a save country to raise their children in. It's the governments task to make sure the people that do enter the country are real refugees or people that add value to the economy. And above all there should be no terrorists entering the country. But currently the influx into Europe is so big that for most immigrants no proper background checks are done. Also people that have known to have fought in Syria are also allowed back into our countries (at least this is true for my country, The Netherlands). I believe from these kinds of people we should take away their citizenship. Other countries have much more sensible immigration policies, like the USA and Australia. Or most Asian countries, for that matter.
- vowelless 10y ago
  > Have you and your European friends tried actually addressing some of the racist beliefs you casually take for granted which lead you to discriminate against immigrants when it comes to integration into society? I don't think this is fair at all. I'm of Middle Eastern stock (now living in the US) and even I was kind of shocked when I stayed near Gare du Nord in Paris (especially) and in some other parts of the city. I did not feel as if I was in Europe. It felt like a souk in Qatar. I date a French North African woman and so am acutely aware of the integration problems many (not all of course) immigrants have in France. Many old time French North Africans, who fought for normality in the French society over decades, are now finding themselves on the side of "the other" again because of unnecessary mass immigration of people who are certainly not french and secular enough like the North Africans who migrated in the 60s and 70s. New Islamic immigration is preying on 2nd and 3rd generation somewhat normalized immigrants and destroying a population that was integrated and also creating a divide among the different ethnic groups within the country. You may consider this perspective to be racist. But I don't see how allowing racist Middle Easterners (like most people I grew up with) with homophobic tendencies (almost a given) to mass immigrate to a country is not racist itself. > Whereas in Europe it seems that you are constantly defined by your ancestry, even after multiple generations. Why is this an issue? It is an exception to have countries like America and Canada (both of which I adore) which are based on ideals [1]. Most nations are created after bloody ethnic wars (especially in Europe). It would be wrong to force them to give up their ancestral lands. A crude proxy for seeing this is to have a look at the birthright citizenship map [2]. Only a handful of nations have jus soil (US and Canada being among them). Majority are jus sanguinis. And the trend is for ethnic countries like Germany and Ireland to go more towards jus sanguinis. Ethnic countries like Ireland and India in fact used to be jus soil and have recently moved away from that to preserve the ethnicity. So for countries built on ethnicity, why would you expect it not to be the case that one is defined by their ancestry? [1] And yes, there are significant problems with the history of America especially with respect to the Native Americans. [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jus_soli#/media/File:Jus_soli_world.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jus_soli#/media/File:Jus_soli_...
NicoJuicy 10y ago
The principles of the EU are great, just badly executed. Europe is not dead, there is however democracy which isn't as easy as dictatorship. Let's see how the brexit turns out also, right now it's too soon to tell Even Trump publicly changed his opinion ;)
irtazasafi 10y ago
'I intend to leave for Asia'. Get a grip you fool, you're an immigrant yourself and you're hating on immigrants who migrate for the same reasons as you?
- wsc981 10y ago
  I will emigrate for several reasons. Because I'd like to live in a country that has: - a warmer climate - sensible immigration policies - a culture where people are less direct and have more respect for everyones personal space - a smaller government, less social security policies, people take more care for one another - lower taxes - great food Do you think the immigrants that come to Europe are travelling there for the same reasons?
  - gonvaled 10y ago
    Of course not, they have other reasons. Which are not valid, since the only good reasons are the ones you listed.
Faaak 10y ago
I live in France near the Swiss-France border and all this talk about how more borders will reduce terrorism and immigration is completely bullshit. I cross every day the border. Twice a week, I cross another border which is meant to be closed from 19h to 6h (many small borders near the FR-CH do that). There is a simply locked barrier. Nothing more. This has been here for 25+ years. Of course, I've crossed "illegally" this border by bike plenty of times (its faster) and it has been very very easy (I won't even talk about all the woods around the border that haven't got a single fence). A terrorist wanting to cross a border would be very stupid to get caught. So all this talk about how getting out of the EU is complete bullshit to me.
- wsc981 10y ago
  I've seen borders working fine. For example in Israel. Hungary seems to be doing well also. I don't believe in this rhetoric that borders don't work. Back when I was a small boy, almost every month there was some bombing going on in Israel. These attacks have been greatly reduced by several measures, including the building of the wall.
  - Faaak 10y ago
    Can you imagine a wall all around France ‽ As for the second par of your argument, I don't know the context but to me it seems more of a correlation than a causation.
    - LyndsySimon 10y ago
      Yeah, imagine France building a wall! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maginot_Line https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maginot_Line
      - FoeNyx 10y ago
        And let's not forget the infamous Atlantic Wall ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Wall https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Wall
- 10y ago
polotics 10y ago
Bonjour wsc! Your understanding of the economics I can only describe as: not even wrong. No money printing is going on, governments do not buy, but emit (..sell) bonds. The real issues are competitivity differences between countries, aging populations in dire need.of immigration (say a half syrian like Steve Jobs) and some wildly inefficient top heavy administrations, also Target2 imbalances. Read up! Bonne chance en Thailande ;-)
- wsc981 10y ago
  But the ECB is printing money, see: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/Leading_business_story/the-one-chart-that-shows-the-ecbs-money-printing-scheme-is-failing-a6984181.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/Leading_business_... And yes, technically countries are not buying bonds, but selling bonds to the ECB. But the ECB is acting on behalf of the countries. Finally, I expect most immigrants that have a proper education & perhaps money would prefer to e.g. the USA. Increasing immigration as a solution to an aging population is also something that, in the long run, is not sustainable (for many reasons, including ecological). It's time with think of other solutions and perhaps Japan will be able to lead the way in this area, in the future.
  - polotics 10y ago
    Wow I disagree with every single thing you wrote. Sorry would take too long to discuss

by wsc981 10y ago

jjawssd 10y ago

How can one profit off of the collapse of the European Union?

wsc981 10y ago
Soros at one time hedged against the British Pound and he made much profit this way. Perhaps the same could be done w.r.t. the Euro? See: http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/george-soros-bank-of-england.asp http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/george-soros-bank...
- petre 10y ago
  Soros hedged against the Pound/De-Mark peg. I have doubts it can be done to the Euro (too strong) but it can be done to another currency of a weaker economy pegged which to the Euro, for instance the Bulgarian Lev (BGN).
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
wayn3 10y ago
Do you want to know how YOU can profit or how people like Soros do it? If you're certain something declines in value, all you got to do is buy Put Options
Boothroid 10y ago
Sell heavily EU biased financial instruments, I guess, if you can find someone willing to let you short them.
sparkling 10y ago
Buy Inverse Equitiy ETFs that target european markets.
- cm2187 10y ago
  That's betting against the ECB. Dangerous game.
  - sparkling 10y ago
    At some point, the ECB will have to face market realities.
    - ahakki 10y ago
      There is a saying that the market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent. esp. if you are betring against the ECB

orf 10y ago

I don't agree with the downvotes you are receiving, you make some good overall points (but also some bad ones). Nothing is dead until it is entirely dead, and the EU idea still runs strong in people. Things need to change, as Brexit and the recent problems faced by the union have shown. Now it's down to the time to reform. I don't think Macron is choosing the status quo though, hes as much as a political outsider as Trump and I hope he will make some progress in achieving reforms.

Boothroid 10y ago
A former Rothschild banker - surely part of the establishment, but perhaps a different part
- cm2187 10y ago
  It's funny that he has this image of being a banker. This guy did all of his career at the ministry of finance or in a minister's staff, then went to monetize his address book for two years in a bank before coming back to politics. I don't really see him as a banker. I see him as a civil servant and a networking artist.
  - Boothroid 10y ago
    I am now better informed. Thank you.
mtgx 10y ago
What exactly "needs to change"? When I see people complain about the EU it's usually about "the EU taking their sovereignty and imposing stuff on them". So if "things are going to change" that means the EU would have to become less like the U.S. (a federal entity), and more like an aggregate of wildly different cultures and regulations (so more like the pre-EU Europe). Is that really a good thing? And do things "need to change" that way? Or is more education necessary about why the EU needs to become more homogeneous and less heterogeneous? I can say one thing - if EU states remain wildly different from each other in culture, language, and regulations, the EU will continue to remain a much less appealing market than the US. And it's not so much that the laws are "stricter" (like say the privacy ones), as it is about the laws being different in each country, and making it hard for a company to be compliant with all of them. And I think that means fewer options and fewer quality products for Europeans in the end (you'll be stuck with your locally-made products).

RobertoG 10y ago

The mass printing of money by Draghi is what saved the Euroarea. Even if it was not its job, the ECB was the only one that did anything. I agree with your feeling that the system is a mess and if there are not important changes it will explode.

_delirium 10y ago

I agree with this, and would add that I do not think Macron is even an especially skilled representative of the status quo. I hope I'm wrong, but I predict his administration will be inept in a way that makes FN more popular, not less, much as Hollande's administration was. I'm relieved, because there was one person running who was less suited to the office than Macron, and she didn't get elected, but that's a bit different than celebrating.

deanCommie 10y ago

Have you and your European friends tried actually addressing some of the racist beliefs you casually take for granted which lead you to discriminate against immigrants when it comes to integration into society? (They are always considered lesser, even after numerous generations in the country). Source: Am Canadian who moved to Europe 2 years ago and am constantly shocked by how racists Europeans are. I think part of the problem is that in Canada an immigrant is considered "Canadian" as soon as they get their citizenship. People are proud of their heritage, but nobody gets to claim superiority of citizenship. Whereas in Europe it seems that you are constantly defined by your ancestry, even after multiple generations.

wsc981 10y ago
Being in favour of strong immigration policies is not something racist I believe. Each European tax payer pays their respective governments for having a save country to raise their children in. It's the governments task to make sure the people that do enter the country are real refugees or people that add value to the economy. And above all there should be no terrorists entering the country. But currently the influx into Europe is so big that for most immigrants no proper background checks are done. Also people that have known to have fought in Syria are also allowed back into our countries (at least this is true for my country, The Netherlands). I believe from these kinds of people we should take away their citizenship. Other countries have much more sensible immigration policies, like the USA and Australia. Or most Asian countries, for that matter.
vowelless 10y ago
> Have you and your European friends tried actually addressing some of the racist beliefs you casually take for granted which lead you to discriminate against immigrants when it comes to integration into society? I don't think this is fair at all. I'm of Middle Eastern stock (now living in the US) and even I was kind of shocked when I stayed near Gare du Nord in Paris (especially) and in some other parts of the city. I did not feel as if I was in Europe. It felt like a souk in Qatar. I date a French North African woman and so am acutely aware of the integration problems many (not all of course) immigrants have in France. Many old time French North Africans, who fought for normality in the French society over decades, are now finding themselves on the side of "the other" again because of unnecessary mass immigration of people who are certainly not french and secular enough like the North Africans who migrated in the 60s and 70s. New Islamic immigration is preying on 2nd and 3rd generation somewhat normalized immigrants and destroying a population that was integrated and also creating a divide among the different ethnic groups within the country. You may consider this perspective to be racist. But I don't see how allowing racist Middle Easterners (like most people I grew up with) with homophobic tendencies (almost a given) to mass immigrate to a country is not racist itself. > Whereas in Europe it seems that you are constantly defined by your ancestry, even after multiple generations. Why is this an issue? It is an exception to have countries like America and Canada (both of which I adore) which are based on ideals [1]. Most nations are created after bloody ethnic wars (especially in Europe). It would be wrong to force them to give up their ancestral lands. A crude proxy for seeing this is to have a look at the birthright citizenship map [2]. Only a handful of nations have jus soil (US and Canada being among them). Majority are jus sanguinis. And the trend is for ethnic countries like Germany and Ireland to go more towards jus sanguinis. Ethnic countries like Ireland and India in fact used to be jus soil and have recently moved away from that to preserve the ethnicity. So for countries built on ethnicity, why would you expect it not to be the case that one is defined by their ancestry? [1] And yes, there are significant problems with the history of America especially with respect to the Native Americans. [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jus_soli#/media/File:Jus_soli_world.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jus_soli#/media/File:Jus_soli_...

NicoJuicy 10y ago

The principles of the EU are great, just badly executed. Europe is not dead, there is however democracy which isn't as easy as dictatorship. Let's see how the brexit turns out also, right now it's too soon to tell Even Trump publicly changed his opinion ;)

irtazasafi 10y ago

'I intend to leave for Asia'. Get a grip you fool, you're an immigrant yourself and you're hating on immigrants who migrate for the same reasons as you?

wsc981 10y ago
I will emigrate for several reasons. Because I'd like to live in a country that has: - a warmer climate - sensible immigration policies - a culture where people are less direct and have more respect for everyones personal space - a smaller government, less social security policies, people take more care for one another - lower taxes - great food Do you think the immigrants that come to Europe are travelling there for the same reasons?
- gonvaled 10y ago
  Of course not, they have other reasons. Which are not valid, since the only good reasons are the ones you listed.

Faaak 10y ago

I live in France near the Swiss-France border and all this talk about how more borders will reduce terrorism and immigration is completely bullshit. I cross every day the border. Twice a week, I cross another border which is meant to be closed from 19h to 6h (many small borders near the FR-CH do that). There is a simply locked barrier. Nothing more. This has been here for 25+ years. Of course, I've crossed "illegally" this border by bike plenty of times (its faster) and it has been very very easy (I won't even talk about all the woods around the border that haven't got a single fence). A terrorist wanting to cross a border would be very stupid to get caught. So all this talk about how getting out of the EU is complete bullshit to me.

wsc981 10y ago
I've seen borders working fine. For example in Israel. Hungary seems to be doing well also. I don't believe in this rhetoric that borders don't work. Back when I was a small boy, almost every month there was some bombing going on in Israel. These attacks have been greatly reduced by several measures, including the building of the wall.
- Faaak 10y ago
  Can you imagine a wall all around France ‽ As for the second par of your argument, I don't know the context but to me it seems more of a correlation than a causation.
  - LyndsySimon 10y ago
    Yeah, imagine France building a wall! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maginot_Line https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maginot_Line
    - FoeNyx 10y ago
      And let's not forget the infamous Atlantic Wall ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Wall https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Wall
10y ago

polotics 10y ago

Bonjour wsc! Your understanding of the economics I can only describe as: not even wrong. No money printing is going on, governments do not buy, but emit (..sell) bonds. The real issues are competitivity differences between countries, aging populations in dire need.of immigration (say a half syrian like Steve Jobs) and some wildly inefficient top heavy administrations, also Target2 imbalances. Read up! Bonne chance en Thailande ;-)

wsc981 10y ago
But the ECB is printing money, see: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/Leading_business_story/the-one-chart-that-shows-the-ecbs-money-printing-scheme-is-failing-a6984181.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/Leading_business_... And yes, technically countries are not buying bonds, but selling bonds to the ECB. But the ECB is acting on behalf of the countries. Finally, I expect most immigrants that have a proper education & perhaps money would prefer to e.g. the USA. Increasing immigration as a solution to an aging population is also something that, in the long run, is not sustainable (for many reasons, including ecological). It's time with think of other solutions and perhaps Japan will be able to lead the way in this area, in the future.
- polotics 10y ago
  Wow I disagree with every single thing you wrote. Sorry would take too long to discuss