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French election: Macron defeats Le Pen
- orf 9y agoAs a European this comes as a huge relief, especially given the poorly-timed email leak (with Russian names in the metadata). Here's to hoping that Europe can continue working together and begin to reform itself, and not tear itself apart like some of our American 'allies' on the (alt-)right would like. Lots of challenges ahead, but we wouldn't want it to be too easy now would we?
- sparkling 9y agoAny 12 year old kiddie can change meta data on files. Faking meta data to place false clues is intelligence service 101 as documented by many NSA/CIA leaks.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- cperciva 9y agoSure, but if documents supposedly belonging to French political actors have Russian names in the metadata, it means they were tampered with. It doesn't matter if the tampering was done by Russia or by the USA; either way, those documents are not authentic, which means the whole "look what we found when we hacked his email" story is a fraud.
- petre 9y agoThe leaked data was released too late to have an imapct on the election. Either who released it was really desperate or they seek to blame Russia.
- dirtyaura 9y agoIt still seems that the leak was amplified by alt-right bot networks https://medium.com/dfrlab/hashtag-campaign-macronleaks-4a3fb870c4e8 https://medium.com/dfrlab/hashtag-campaign-macronleaks-4a3fb...
- wsc981 9y agoAs a European I see this as a huge concern. Choosing Macron means keeping the status quo, which means continued mass immigration, continued bad economic policy, etc... in Europe. I am sure the bankers will be glad as will the European Commission and the multinationals, but the common people will become disillusioned in a few years as more and more terrorist attacks will happen into Europe and the problems with the economic policy if the EU will become more visible (the mass printing of money by Draghi and forcing countries buy bad bonds to cover this pyramid scheme). But -for me personally- I'd say it's a good thing. As I stated before, choosing Macron means keeping up with the status quo and I intend to leave Europe for Asia next year (I have an Asian girlfriend and daughter). I do realise that if Le Pen would be chosen now there would be unrest in the Economic markets, the EU, etc... So for me personally it will be a good time to just make a bit more money before leaving permanently. In the end the choice for Macron will only delay the inevitable though. The EU is dead, it just doesn't realise it yet. The only problem is: the longer it takes for the EU to collapse, the messier it will become.
- jjawssd 9y agoHow can one profit off of the collapse of the European Union?
- wsc981 9y agoSoros at one time hedged against the British Pound and he made much profit this way. Perhaps the same could be done w.r.t. the Euro? See: http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/george-soros-bank-of-england.asp http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/george-soros-bank...
- petre 9y agoSoros hedged against the Pound/De-Mark peg. I have doubts it can be done to the Euro (too strong) but it can be done to another currency of a weaker economy pegged which to the Euro, for instance the Bulgarian Lev (BGN).
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- Boothroid 9y agoLots not Lot's. No apostrophe needed to make plural :)
- sparkling 9y agoYou seem to assume that without the EU, european countries would no longer cooperate and trade with each other. I don't see that happening. The European Economic Area (EEA) and the Schengen treaty exist independently from the EU. Norway and Switzerland are not members of the EU, yet they trade perfectly fine with others. The EU is simply not necessary for free trade; nor is free trade its main goal. The EU as it is right now is becoming the next Sovient Union. A undemocratic, centralised, bureaucratic superstate that strips the people from their sovereignty, independence, cultural and ethnic traditions. What the EU is trying to do has been done in the past and it has failed.
- mozumder 9y agoWithout the EU, they wouldn't have free labor mobility, limiting business hiring. If you want your business to succeed, you better have a free and open labor pool. This is why economies grow with open borders, because it's more labor efficient. Can you imagine not being able to hire a specialized SQL coder, because the only one available is in Austria, and you're business is in France, and there's no labor mobility? Or did you think labor was a commodity? And that anyone can do anyone else's job?
- polotics 9y agoReplace Austria with Australia in your post, and reconsider the truth value of your EU==Labor Mobility equation ok?
- cthulha 9y agoAustralian here: entry into EU area is a huge plus for jobs in Europe. Australian passports can use Schengen simplified entry and exit borders. We aren't part of EU, but the EU is a very appealing place to work.
- sparkling 9y ago> Can you imagine not being able to hire a specialized SQL coder, because the only one available is in Austria, and you're business is in France, and there's no labor mobility? In France, you can hire a SQL coder straight from Zimbabwe, South Korea, Venezuela or any other place on earth without a problem. The laws are in place and the EU has nothing to do with it.
- sbose78 9y agoI'm curious how things work? This is just a prediction? Is this an official exit poll?
- iKenshu 9y agoIs not confirmed
- agumonkey 9y agoEstimate of voting booth all around. Probably gonna shift a bit until midnight but not by much and surely not enough to modify the results; and so far it seems Macron is going from 65.1 to 65.5.
- lindbergh 9y agoPolls close at 7pm except in larger cities, but counting of votes start at this time. It's forbidden to leak the results until 8pm, at which time the sample is large enough to give a precise estimate, unlikely to move by much.
- sbose78 9y agoIf polls haven't closed yet, shouldn't exit polls be made illegal? Because exit polls can manipulate opinions.
- MagnumOpus 9y agoThat is already illegal in France. Exit polls can be taken, but cannot be published until after polling booths close. Since the polling booths are now closed (it is 8:30pm in France), these exit polls have been published. That is what the Beeb article is based on.
- glandium 9y ago> at which time the sample is large enough to give a precise estimate, unlikely to move by much. More importantly, at which time all booths are closed.
- agumonkey 9y agoI can't deny it uplifted my mood quite a bit. The nationalist wave didn't flip France head enough, which is always good. It's just a start, a new hope.
- jstoja 9y agoA new hope would have been to start having a decline in the far-right votes.
- agumonkey 9y agoYeah totally. I wished for a 20%. Alas time moves quick and I couldn't act to ensure this locally. 35% is still way too high, but the worst is avoided.
- enraged_camel 9y agoThe worst isn't avoided - just postponed. Le Pen's father received half the vote she did back in 2002. That means nationalist sentiment has doubled in just 15 years. If things go the way they are (which they will under Macron) we should expect a nationalist landslide in about a decade.
- agumonkey 9y agoJMLP had a different game to play. Since, MLP spent years softening the FN image. Then wars and terrorism striked. Not long ago it was given that considering the context she would win. My opinion is that the 34% is peak nationalism and people will go back to normal parties.
- remy_0 9y ago> normal parties. The matter is not the parties. It's ideologies. FN is prospering because of the remanent xenophobic culture of France. There is always a reason for hatred, it does not fade so easily
- s_kilk 9y ago65% to 34%, mauled.
- agumonkey 9y ago65.5% now, I like it like that.
- S4M 9y ago34% is way too much for a fascist like Le Pen.
- masklinn 9y agoNot that much of a mauling by FN standards, when her father reached the 2nd round in 2002 he got 18%, that's a serious improvement of the party's result.
- shafiqissani 9y agoThank God, given Theresa we needed someone sane in the EU.
- romeinaday 9y agoThe battle was between people from anywhere - bourgeoise globalists and proletariat immigrants - and people from somewhere - the native French. The 'anywheres' have imported so many ideological allies that the result was inevitable. A good analysis is here: https://www.city-journal.org/html/french-coming-apart-15125.html https://www.city-journal.org/html/french-coming-apart-15125....
- alexro 9y agoDid she set up concentration camps or plans to?
- bonaldi 9y agoDo you think that is the sole criterion for being able to call her a fascist? Because it's not. And a French court ruled it is legitimate to call her fascist too: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/03/20/french-courts-yes-its-okay-to-call-marine-le-pen-a-fascist-or-worse/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/03/20...
- YSFEJ4SWJUVU6 9y agoThe Left – tolerant as ever when it comes to differing opinions.
- DonHopkins 9y agoWhat's wrong with not tolerating intolerance? Not to be confused with not tolerating not tolerating intolerance, which is a totally different thing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_tolerance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_tolerance Philosopher Karl Popper defined the paradox in 1945 in The Open Society and Its Enemies Vol. 1. Less well known is the paradox of tolerance: Unlimited tolerance must lead to the disappearance of tolerance. If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. He concluded that we are warranted in refusing to tolerate intolerance: "We should therefore claim, in the name of tolerance, the right not to tolerate the intolerant."
- __ddd__ 9y agoYou didn't present your argument in meme form, not sure you're going to change any minds... When a negative tendency must be negated, there are always people who pretend the negation is no different. It's a question of what/who not to tolerate, and why -- the answer doesn't fit in an image macro or on a bumper sticker, just as it can't be packaged in a word like "intolerance".
- easilyBored 9y agoHad France "fallen," EU would have been toast. Together with Germany they are the main pillars of EU. As bad as EU is, eventually they will get along just fine...or a least just as United States of America do.
- AlexeyBrin 9y ago> As bad as EU is, eventually they will get along just fine...or a least just as United Sates of America do. The difference is that in USA they speak the same language and even this way they are not as homogenous as they seem from outside. In Europe you have huge economical and cultural differences between certain states, bad blood for historical reasons between some nations and so on.
- tobltobs 9y agoIn Switzerland they speak four different languages and that doesn't seem to be a problem.
- AlexeyBrin 9y agoYou should try to live for a few years in different European countries like Hungary, Romania and Germany. Most importantly see how each of these people see each other and their neighbours. I bet that people in Switzerland have more in common (economically and culturally) than people from Bulgaria and France have for example.
- easilyBored 9y agoDon't even mention the Balkans...in some countries they still angrily talk about 1054 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East%E2%80%93West_Schism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East%E2%80%93West_Schism and 1204 (Sack of Constantinople https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Constantinople_(1204) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Constantinople_(1204)) Hopefully the new generations will care more about their iPhone 68 than ancient history.
- mlcdf 9y ago11M people voted for Le Pen. This number is terrifyingly high.
- easilyBored 9y agoThe protest vote. Doesn't necessarily mean that they agree with her on most things, they just hate the status quo.
- grogenaut 9y agoFor context, in the 2012 election, total votes in 2nd round was 34,861,353, out of a population of 66.81M (now). I couldn't find the total voting population easily.
- jjcc 9y agoIf Sarkozy didn't change the regime of Libya by bombing based on lies which are still under cover by main stream media, there might be no such an immigration wave caused by war and chaos. Today main stream media still try to avoid to associate their bias reports with the change in public opinion. It seems to me that main stream media is part of if not all of reasons caused such situation today.
- kingkawn 9y agoEvery "civilizing" or, in the post-colonial era, "humanitarian" intervention in the Middle East has contributed to the state we find ourselves in today. But they blame religion, anything they can other than themselves.
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- RobertoG 9y agoThose results are an improvement for the Front national. If the current policies at the French and European level don't change, we are just winning a few years. Macron is probably the candidate less inclined to change those policies.
- YSFEJ4SWJUVU6 9y agoI'm sure we're about to get blown back by the storm of articles analysing how institutional misogyny played a part in a presidential election that a woman lost ... not. Not sure if this is HN material, though.
- pavlov 9y agoIf Macron (or his campaign) had talked about Le Pen the same way Trump's troops did about Clinton, you would have a point. But I can't remember seeing any of that. (Compare to the Republican National Convention last year where sexist merchandise insulting Clinton was everywhere. One t-shirt read: "KFC Hillary special: 2 fat thighs. 2 small breasts. Left wing.")
- glandium 9y agoCan't reply to the GP which is now flagged, but somehow, he was right, it happened... https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/861764728753926144 https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/861764728753926144 I'm speechless.
- Boothroid 9y agoNothing juicy in the emails it seems - so what possible benefit is there for the leaker? Could it be bragging? Increasing fear of hacking? Implying that Le Pen was in cahoots with the Russians? Clearly if it was supposed to help Le Pen it didn't work.
- ZeroGravitas 9y agoWouldn't surprise me if some "fake news" based on the emails was getting pushed via social media while the main media was forced to not cover anything. If they had anything even vaguely plausible, they'd have released it earlier.
- pinaceae 9y agoThe most successful peace project on European soil of the last 1000 years can continue. Naysayers of the EU need to learn history. It is worth every penny, every inch of inconvenience. TWO fucking world wars were started by Europe, by nations that formed the Coal/Steel Union after 45 and now enjoy the longest, uninterrupted period of peace since, like, EVER. The EU's economy is the largest in the world. You don't fuck with that. Except if you're British and can't stomach the end of your empire.
- spiderfarmer 9y agoExcept if you're British and voted for Brexit to fuck with your government without thinking it would actually mean adieu. FTFY
- Boothroid 9y agoTrolling? Regardless, Firstly I'd say the EU was secondary to the US and USSR/latterly Russia in controlling war in Europe. Secondly I suppose I could lower myself to your tone by making the point that the UK is a nuclear weapons state and generally you don't f with that either, and lastly most people in the UK don't care about the empire, and the topic usually seems to be raised by people having a pop at the UK.
- CalChris 9y ago> The EU's economy is the largest in the world Not quite, but it's big. The EU is $17T. The US is $18.5T. But I agree that you shouldn't fuck with that especially for the reasons that Le Pen and the Brexiters had.
- blibble 9y agoso the peace was nothing to do with the fact the USSR had several million troops, tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and a few thousand tanks 10 miles away? former largest economy: after brexit the EU27 economy will be smaller than the US
- gonvaled 9y agoBrexit not yet through ...
- AckSyn 9y agoSome people want their country to continue to be a shithole with rampant unchecked illegals and migrants thumbing their noses at the law. All for what? Some false utopian ideal of "but muh multiculturalism"
- ue_ 9y agoThis is quite an uncharitable view of those who are against restricting immigration as much as Le Pen would have wanted to. Although I am no proponent of neo-liberalism, I am a proponent of multiculturalism. And that doesn't necessarily carry with it "migrants thumbing their noses at the law" and "unchecked" illegal immigrants (if we are going to put legality over morality here).
- dang 9y agoWe've banned this account for using HN for ideological battle, which is an abuse of this site. We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14286863 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14286863 and marked it off-topic.
- AckSyn 9y agoYou've banned my account or the person I replied to?
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- lindbergh 9y agoHN will likely rejoice. Macron is putting a lot of faith in startups to jumpstart back the french economy. I think it's wise: France has great schools to train great engineers, but there's still this stigma that it's almost impossible to have your own tech company in France unless you're ready to deal with massive paperwork. I have no idea how true it is, but Macron clearly wants to change this mentality. It also goes to another level. Traditionally (since the 50s), engineering in France has largely been lead by large, ambitious and state funded projects and organizations. Think for instance Concorde, TGV, EDF, INRIA, etc. I have always liked this gaullist mentality: it has benefited the majority of the population and I tend to believe it has been helpful in making France a major post WW2 superpower. But lately it may not have worked so well: for instance, many regional airports have been built at high cost, and yet many of them are almost empty. Perhaps then, resource allocation is the problem. In this regard, Macron is influenced by the american model where eg. Bell Labs, Elon Musk, Silicon Valley behemoths, etc. decide by themselves what shall be built and the state has little to no regard in the orientations of these organizations. We'll see. I'm glad Macron has won and hope his plan works out.
- song 9y agoSpeaking as someone who has had companies in various countries (Japan, China, Hong Kong and France). The paperwork and complexities in France are by far the worst. Even China with it's love of red tape is at least relatively well organized and not to difficult to navigate. In France, you get to deal with organizations like the RSI and URSSAF which are incredibly incompetent, frequently make mistake, do not have phone numbers that can be called from abroad (which is extremely inconvenient when traveling for business) and have Bizantine rules. I would never create a company again in France because the system is completely broken. I really hope that Macron follows through on solving this. I believe that it's a priority.
- lindbergh 9y agoInteresting. Out of curiosity, why then did you chose France over any other EU country to have your company?
- bkjelden 9y agoIt seems that Trump and Brexit may have been the high water mark for the wave of nationalism sweeping the west. 2017 has seen nationalist candidates fade and underperform their polls across the EU. Trump has made less actual policy progress towards his nationalist goals than perhaps many feared/expected. Things were quite scary a few months ago. There are still things to be concerned about going forward, but politics ebbs and flows, and for now perhaps the flood waters are receding.
- pottersbasilisk 9y agoCondoleeza rice disagrees. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/05/07/condoleezza-rice-on-brexit-le-pen-and-trump/101366634/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/05/07/condoleezza-r...
- zouhair 9y agoAnd they elected a worse person than Hollande.
- kazinator 9y agoThe pen is mightier than the sword, but sometimes comes up dry against a simple diacritical mark.