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Actually, as it says in the current article: "The vaccine is very safe and effective, with two doses being 97 percent effective at preventing infection." Unfor
by nonbel 10y ago
Actually, as it says in the current article: "The vaccine is very safe and effective, with two doses being 97 percent effective at preventing infection."
Unfortunately, while 97% sounds great, "effectiveness" must be considered in light of the infectiousness of the virus. In this case it appears measles may be so infectious (eg one infected child can sneeze and expose an entire school, so-called "superspreaders"), that vaccination will cause a "honeymoon period" that ends with a gigantic epidemic.[I discussed this earlier here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13656252 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13656252]
Now we are pretty much stuck with measles vaccination, but I doubt the original program would have been begun if they had today's knowledge. Anyway, when/if this giant measles epidemic happens, that is where you should point your fingers.
- nonbel 10y agoI'd love if someone who disagrees would post why. The references are found in my earlier post (linked to above). The honeymoon period, role of vaccine failure rate vs R0 value in epidemic generation, and herd immunity are all derived from the same general SIR models... So I don't see how you can reject what I am saying while still accepting the herd immunity concept (which is generally accepted).