It seems more like an intuitive guess, since some others [0] have suggested something around ~2020 to 2030. A while ago (when Tergat still had the record) I tri

It seems more like an intuitive guess, since some others [0] have suggested something around ~2020 to 2030. A while ago (when Tergat still had the record) I tried to simply fit a line to the All-time Athletics list [1] and thought 2050 was reasonable, IIRC. Have to wonder if Kipchoge's time will end up being Beamonesque and we'll be at 2030 before those last ~25s are shaved off. [0] http://jap.physiology.org/content/110/1/275 http://jap.physiology.org/content/110/1/275 [1] http://www.alltime-athletics.com/mmaraok.htm http://www.alltime-athletics.com/mmaraok.htm