3 ms·

Here's a related FiveThirtyEight discussion on the topic: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-science-help-runners-break-the-marathons-2-hour-barrier/ http

by sndean 9y ago

Here's a related FiveThirtyEight discussion on the topic: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-science-help-runners-break-the-marathons-2-hour-barrier/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-science-help-runner... One of the quotes: "A few years ago, I predicted it would happen in 2075, which gives a sense of where my thinking was at that point."

hcs 9y ago
Here's a direct link to that prediction: http://rw.runnersworld.com/sub-2/ http://rw.runnersworld.com/sub-2/ Lots of data, but I don't see how the 2075 date is calculated, is it just an intuitive guess?
- sndean 9y ago
  It seems more like an intuitive guess, since some others [0] have suggested something around ~2020 to 2030. A while ago (when Tergat still had the record) I tried to simply fit a line to the All-time Athletics list [1] and thought 2050 was reasonable, IIRC. Have to wonder if Kipchoge's time will end up being Beamonesque and we'll be at 2030 before those last ~25s are shaved off. [0] http://jap.physiology.org/content/110/1/275 http://jap.physiology.org/content/110/1/275 [1] http://www.alltime-athletics.com/mmaraok.htm http://www.alltime-athletics.com/mmaraok.htm