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Your worries are pretty unfounded. The bigger concern is what Netflix would do to Apple's culture, not the other way around. Netflix is FCF negative and a fract
by IBM 9y ago
Your worries are pretty unfounded. The bigger concern is what Netflix would do to Apple's culture, not the other way around. Netflix is FCF negative and a fraction of the value of Apple and the value it produces.
That being said, it would actually be better for Netflix if Apple acquired it. Right now Netflix depends on access to the capital markets to fund their growth, which is why they regularly issue debt to finance it. In the event of a recession or some turmoil in markets (Europe, China, etc) that send NFLX's stock price down and bond yields up, that would severely impact NFLX's growth trajectory (spending a lot of money on original content to acquire subscribers).
The biggest threat to Netflix is Amazon and that's because they (and their shareholders) are willing to run at a loss for a long time. They have a lower cost of capital and generate FCF from other businesses. They would not be impacted by turmoil in the capital markets. As long as investing in video drives e-commerce sales (as it has), they have an asymmetric advantage over Netflix.
Apple acquiring Netflix would give Netflix the same edge. If Netflix was bundled for free with an iPhone Upgrade Plan (or in the carrier's version of it) and it drove increased iPhone sales, the economic logic for investing heavily in original content is there.
If Apple acquired Netflix, they would not make it exclusive to their hardware because that basically destroys the value of Netflix. They also would not integrate you into Apple because keeping Ted Sarandos and Reed Hastings around is key to executing the Netflix vision (but also because it keeps Apple, Apple).