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Given that the election is tomorrow., I don't believe this hack will impact the result (at least, certainly not as much a if it would have appeared 1 week ago).

ceejayoz 9y ago
Right before the election is far more dangerous. Fake or out-of-context portions will cause immediate outrage and take days/weeks to research and explain (and the French campaign blackout means the campaign can't explain until after the election). As an example, 538 makes a compelling argument that the Comey letter - later found to be essentially a false alarm, but after the damage was done - influenced the US election. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probab...
- matt4077 9y ago
  You may be right, although there can be a "too close to the election" if it means there isn't enough time to go through the documents to find anything incriminating, and/or for the information to spread. In this case, it's highly unlikely that it will change the election's outcome, given that Macron has a solid 20%+ advantage in all recent polls. It also bears repeating that debate about the Comey letter is somewhat silly in that it usually treats "Comey swung the election" and "Hillary made mistakes" as mutually exclusive options. In reality, it's almost certainly true that they both, as well as other reasons, were necessary conditions for a Trip win.
  - BenderV 9y ago
    Then, it could be that this leak is intended to destabilize the next president and that this time-window is the perfect time to release it without opposition. (If he win - most likely -, then he won't focus directly on this. Any bad informations will strengthen the opposition - he is challenged by both left and right.)
- skybrian 9y ago
  The Comey letter was two weeks before, though. Enough for a few news cycles, not enough for it to die down. This seems too late?
untog 9y ago
I wouldn't be so sure - the "Hillary email" announcement by Comey had an immediate impact on polling. If anything this might be more dangerous as there is little to no chance to rebut it.

ceejayoz 9y ago

Right before the election is far more dangerous. Fake or out-of-context portions will cause immediate outrage and take days/weeks to research and explain (and the French campaign blackout means the campaign can't explain until after the election). As an example, 538 makes a compelling argument that the Comey letter - later found to be essentially a false alarm, but after the damage was done - influenced the US election. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probab...

matt4077 9y ago
You may be right, although there can be a "too close to the election" if it means there isn't enough time to go through the documents to find anything incriminating, and/or for the information to spread. In this case, it's highly unlikely that it will change the election's outcome, given that Macron has a solid 20%+ advantage in all recent polls. It also bears repeating that debate about the Comey letter is somewhat silly in that it usually treats "Comey swung the election" and "Hillary made mistakes" as mutually exclusive options. In reality, it's almost certainly true that they both, as well as other reasons, were necessary conditions for a Trip win.
- BenderV 9y ago
  Then, it could be that this leak is intended to destabilize the next president and that this time-window is the perfect time to release it without opposition. (If he win - most likely -, then he won't focus directly on this. Any bad informations will strengthen the opposition - he is challenged by both left and right.)
skybrian 9y ago
The Comey letter was two weeks before, though. Enough for a few news cycles, not enough for it to die down. This seems too late?

untog 9y ago

I wouldn't be so sure - the "Hillary email" announcement by Comey had an immediate impact on polling. If anything this might be more dangerous as there is little to no chance to rebut it.