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This is from South China Morning Post, a paper that has now significantly shifted its viewpoint to align with the Chinese government, after Alibaba's founder pu

This is from South China Morning Post, a paper that has now significantly shifted its viewpoint to align with the Chinese government, after Alibaba's founder purchased it. Also, China's debt is huge, it's 300% gdp (bigger than US in 2008), and that's not accounting the shadow banking that would need to be unwound. Couple that the demographics crisis, fleeing foreign money/factories, middle income trap, lack of innovations, authoritarian government controls, capital outflow crisis, and one can see that there's no way this bubble will be unwound "orderly".

1001101 10y ago
SCMP seems to be a little more independent than say the Renmin Ribao, but skepticism is warranted. I would add to your list that Chinese capital has been completely misallocated. Roads and bridges to nowhere, ghost cities. They've poured more concrete in the last 5 or so years than the US did in the first 100 years of its history [1] to give you a sense of the scale. There are cities that are unoccupied - entire cities. I'm still unclear on how these were financed, but my guess is with liberalization of the financial sector these were packaged up somehow and sold to Ma and Pa. It's going to end like it always does, with lots of tears (except for those like Kyle Bass who have positioned themselves to profit). [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/03/24/how-china-used-more-cement-in-3-years-than-the-u-s-did-in-the-entire-20th-century/?utm_term=.0f20c328c19b https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/03/24/how-c... More on ghost cities: https://www.wired.com/2016/02/kai-caemmerer-unborn-cities/ https://www.wired.com/2016/02/kai-caemmerer-unborn-cities/ http://www.businessinsider.com/china-ghost-cities-satellite-images-2017-3/#-streets-full-of-mcmansions-in-2015--7 http://www.businessinsider.com/china-ghost-cities-satellite-...
frgtpsswrdlame 10y ago
Do you know a better source for high-quality news on China?

1001101 10y ago

SCMP seems to be a little more independent than say the Renmin Ribao, but skepticism is warranted. I would add to your list that Chinese capital has been completely misallocated. Roads and bridges to nowhere, ghost cities. They've poured more concrete in the last 5 or so years than the US did in the first 100 years of its history [1] to give you a sense of the scale. There are cities that are unoccupied - entire cities. I'm still unclear on how these were financed, but my guess is with liberalization of the financial sector these were packaged up somehow and sold to Ma and Pa. It's going to end like it always does, with lots of tears (except for those like Kyle Bass who have positioned themselves to profit). [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/03/24/how-china-used-more-cement-in-3-years-than-the-u-s-did-in-the-entire-20th-century/?utm_term=.0f20c328c19b https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/03/24/how-c... More on ghost cities: https://www.wired.com/2016/02/kai-caemmerer-unborn-cities/ https://www.wired.com/2016/02/kai-caemmerer-unborn-cities/ http://www.businessinsider.com/china-ghost-cities-satellite-images-2017-3/#-streets-full-of-mcmansions-in-2015--7 http://www.businessinsider.com/china-ghost-cities-satellite-...

frgtpsswrdlame 10y ago

Do you know a better source for high-quality news on China?