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Most every South Korean wants reunification at some point. But the truth of it is that the current generation doesn't really think about North Korea much. Those
by elblanco 16y ago
Most every South Korean wants reunification at some point. But the truth of it is that the current generation doesn't really think about North Korea much. Those that do cite the the German experiment as an example of a very cautionary tale about reunification.
This of course despite the fact that many older generation Koreans would feel compelled to have some kind of punishment for the "communists" (in quotes because the word is abused in South Korea by the older generation to the point of being meaningless) and their various crimes against the South. Of course this would further complicate reunification.
I think beyond just hearing what South Koreans say, look at what they do. The Kaesong Industrial Area is cited in the South as a way to try and drag at least some portion of the North's populace into the 21st century. Because if reunification of any type did happen, the consensus is that they are virtually without any useful skill to the South. Ultimately, reunification means that the Northerners will have to become productive, job holding, members of society. All of the BS they spend time drilling on in school, like the great works of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jung Il and learning how to perform in mass games and create propaganda ballets about dam construction, are absolutely meaningless in a modern industrialized world. If the two Koreas reunified tomorrow, they would have to figure out what to do with 20 million unskilled laborers.
The bright side is that the pragmatists see this as a way of perpetuating the cheap labor pool requirements for an export driven economy. South Korea has started bringing in labor from places like Indonesia, Nepal, Vietnam, etc. because they can use these laborers on low waged manufacturing jobs. If 20 million North Koreans suddenly became available, it would greatly simplify things (in theory) for the manufacturing chaebols in the South. They'd simply bus in Northerners at $10-20/day to build TVs and Ships and Construction equipment and all the other odds and ends that South Korea needs to produce to stay wealthy. Kaesong is supposed to be laying the ground work for that eventual day.
I think likely, if the regime collapsed in the North, they'd move to keep the two countries in place, but with very close economic ties, (perhaps like the U.S. and Canada, with a lax border) for at least a couple generations and use the North as a cheap labor pool and industrial center very similar to how many countries use China. Once the standard of living increased in the North to the point that the South could reasonably absorb the North, and/or the Northerners were demanding wages too high to keep the export model afloat, they'd probably reunify.
- ugh 16y ago“I think likely, if the regime collapsed in the North, they'd move to keep the two countries in place, but with very close economic ties, (perhaps like the U.S. and Canada, with a lax border) for at least a couple generations …” That’s exactly what some people in West Germany and also East Germany proposed after the fall of the Berlin Wall. It ultimately didn’t happen but that was a real debate.