Market economies go through boom-bust cycles. Predicting timing for the next bust is much more impressive than predicting that there will be a bust, eventually.

Market economies go through boom-bust cycles. Predicting timing for the next bust is much more impressive than predicting that there will be a bust, eventually. If you predict in 2016 that an apparently healthy economy will suffer a severe downturn, and it happens in 2017, that's impressive. If you predict a severe downturn in 2009 and it only happens in 2017, that's significantly less impressive. If you predict a severe downturn every year since 2009, that's zerohedge. It reminds me of the peak oil prophets who went from predicting collapse by 2012 to predicting collapse, uh... eventually. Remaining pessimistic in the face of contrary data doesn't make them any smarter than being irrationally optimistic.