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I've been hearing people say that there are signs that the bubble is bursting in China for the last several years now. This time it's for real, though, right?

I've been hearing people say that there are signs that the bubble is bursting in China for the last several years now. This time it's for real, though, right? edit: I had a hunch you'd be the kind of person who would cite a zerohedge article as a source on this. They have been gleefully predicting the collapse of China's economy since the site's inception. No doubt, they will gleefully take credit for "predicting" its collapse, too (should it actually happen), despite all of the failed predictions year after year.

frgtpsswrdlame 9y ago
Not to support zerohedge citations but isn't it totally expected that people who see a collapse coming wouldn't be able to time it exactly? You know the common refrain, the markets can stay irrational longer than you stay solvent, doesn't that go both ways? That if I see the markets are being irrational, it may take quite a long time for the bust to actually happen? But that doesn't mean they weren't irrational and it doesn't mean I didn't see it.
- philipkglass 9y ago
  Market economies go through boom-bust cycles. Predicting timing for the next bust is much more impressive than predicting that there will be a bust, eventually. If you predict in 2016 that an apparently healthy economy will suffer a severe downturn, and it happens in 2017, that's impressive. If you predict a severe downturn in 2009 and it only happens in 2017, that's significantly less impressive. If you predict a severe downturn every year since 2009, that's zerohedge. It reminds me of the peak oil prophets who went from predicting collapse by 2012 to predicting collapse, uh... eventually. Remaining pessimistic in the face of contrary data doesn't make them any smarter than being irrationally optimistic.