4 ms·

>The automation shift is not the same, because it will take over all the unskilled/low-skilled jobs, and there will be nowhere in the economy for the displaced

>The automation shift is not the same, because it will take over all the unskilled/low-skilled jobs, and there will be nowhere in the economy for the displaced people to move into. It is not really conceivable that all these people are capable of taking on jobs which require complex thinking, judgment, creativity, or other higher skills. There are plenty of "low-skill" jobs that nonetheless require human labor in some form because of the ability of humans -- even less intellectual humans -- to think creatively and contort themselves both mentally and physically. Imagine a robot that does everything a school janitor can do. That simply won't exist in the near future. Sure, maybe the janitor won't have to mop large floors anymore. But there's plenty of other work to be done around a school nearly always to continue to justify their employment.

jnicholasp 9y ago
I suppose it depends on what you think of as "near future", but I - and I have no special insight, for the record, just speaking as an outside observer - would put around 75% probability of a robot that can wholly replace a janitor existing in 15 years, and 95% in 20. In terms of time needed to politically and socially prepare for that situation, 20 years feels really near term to me. I don't really expect our existing political structures and processes are capable of dealing with the challenge adequately in time. It's one of my top three fears for the <30 year future. And unfortunately the other two (global displacements from climate change, and bio-/nuclear-terrorism by desperate or angry people/groups) are synergistic with it. If it weren't for my normalcy bias, I'd be kind of terrified.
- Animats 9y ago
  More likely, instead of 10 janitors, you'll have one janitor and a dozen robot cleaning machines.
  - jnicholasp 9y ago
    > More likely, instead of 10 janitors, you'll have one janitor and a dozen robot cleaning machines. For how long, though? Is there any reason to think that will be anything besides a transitional stage before the robots entirely phase out the human?
    - jacobush 9y ago
      Hoooomans are cheap and trainable - they will get directed by the AI to serve the robots' needs. See "MANNA" http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm

jnicholasp 9y ago

I suppose it depends on what you think of as "near future", but I - and I have no special insight, for the record, just speaking as an outside observer - would put around 75% probability of a robot that can wholly replace a janitor existing in 15 years, and 95% in 20. In terms of time needed to politically and socially prepare for that situation, 20 years feels really near term to me. I don't really expect our existing political structures and processes are capable of dealing with the challenge adequately in time. It's one of my top three fears for the <30 year future. And unfortunately the other two (global displacements from climate change, and bio-/nuclear-terrorism by desperate or angry people/groups) are synergistic with it. If it weren't for my normalcy bias, I'd be kind of terrified.

Animats 9y ago
More likely, instead of 10 janitors, you'll have one janitor and a dozen robot cleaning machines.
- jnicholasp 9y ago
  > More likely, instead of 10 janitors, you'll have one janitor and a dozen robot cleaning machines. For how long, though? Is there any reason to think that will be anything besides a transitional stage before the robots entirely phase out the human?
  - jacobush 9y ago
    Hoooomans are cheap and trainable - they will get directed by the AI to serve the robots' needs. See "MANNA" http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm