17 ms·
No you didn't say it, there was no way to tell that you hadn't factored in threshold effects from your first post, nor that you had glossed over high marginal c
by Nomentatus 10y ago
No you didn't say it, there was no way to tell that you hadn't factored in threshold effects from your first post, nor that you had glossed over high marginal costs for energy. Points you then pointedly ignore when replying.
If you don't want to be asked what you're saying precisely, you just have to provide more detail earlier, or at the very least the proper rubrik. I just don't understand the hostility here mixed into factual matters.
There's little to answer in your last post. Your definition of gradual was decades; re solar power it's already been decades, but the actual transitions to new technologies - the mass adoptions - happen quickly - so you're really changing the subject. The first consumer product (radio) to appear in my city with transistors came in the early sixties, at a price of $79 - a fortune then - but only a few years after that, you couldn't buy a regular radio with tubes. The transition was very rapid. Kodak's stock took a long time to fall to earth, but the loss of revenue was sudden, and massive.
Re transmission - solar will strongly tend to be local. Batteries: you can look up discussions of Vanadium batteries (just one novel tech) elsewhere on HN, but note that individual batteries are now being built that are nearly 1GW - so 50,000 GW is very far from impossible - even if that figure turns out to be accurate. Not impossible at 5 cents a watt. Betting that this or that is impossible is usually a bad bet.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2016/12/13/vanadium-flow-batteries-the-energy-storage-breakthrough-weve-needed/#a6ee7675bde8 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2016/12/13/vanadium-...
Actually, far larger "batteries" exist - reversible dams, many built only for energy storage purposes. Analogous mass systems have also been proposed using air and salt.
- tedsanders 10y agoI apologize if I came off as hostile. I don't feel hostile. In any case, I think it's fine to ask folks for clarification. But I think it's rude to assert: "What you're trying to say is..." Also, even if Vanadium flow batteries achieve commercial success and drop energy storage costs down to 5 cents a kWh, that's still above wholesale electricity prices of 2-4 cents a kWh: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/wholesale_markets.cfm https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/wholesale_mar... Lastly, the EAI disagrees with your assertion that solar will be local (which I interpret to mean rooftop). It forecasts lower costs and higher volumes for utility-scale installations, which benefit from greater economies of scale.
- Nomentatus 10y agoAgain, nobody can tell where your argument went wrong if you don't provide the steps, so all anyone can do is ask.