OP made a sucker's bet for two reasons: 1. Fees, which he doesn't mention this write up 2. Hedging, which drags performance in up market years. Markets tend to

OP made a sucker's bet for two reasons: 1. Fees, which he doesn't mention this write up 2. Hedging, which drags performance in up market years. Markets tend to move up over time, so the longer the outlook, the more likely he is to lose.