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> Warren and I have written during the past two years that he will win the bet absent a market crash. Hedge funds tend to significantly outperform in bear marke
by tgb 10y ago
> Warren and I have written during the past two years that he will win the bet absent a market crash. Hedge funds tend to significantly outperform in bear markets, as demonstrated in 2008 and 2000-2002.
This bet started in January 1st, 2008 shortly before the market crash of 2008. What could Ted Seides mean by bringing this up? It seems to just reinforce Buffet's win.
- spott 10y agoI think he is pointing out that if you look at the 2008-2009 timeframe, the hedge funds had a loss of roughly 5-15%, while the S&P500 had a loss of roughly 20%. The hedge funds did better in bear markets... they just don't do well enough in bull markets to make up the difference over a 10 year period with only a single crash. In a theoretical world where modern hedge funds were in business between 2000 and 2009, we might have come to a different conclusion: there were a number of down markets during that time and hedge funds might have been able to do much better.
- isolli 10y agoHe meant that with a second market crash he might have won.