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Fortunately, over a long enough time scale, it doesn't matter, the technology will eventually leak out of their control. If they come up with incremental medica

Fortunately, over a long enough time scale, it doesn't matter, the technology will eventually leak out of their control. If they come up with incremental medical treatments, well, then they will be under patents and initially only available to the wealthy in first world nations, but over time patents will expire and countries that don't care about patents will find ways to replicate the science. At worst it won't be different than any other medical advancements. If they come up with an immortality serum or something equally fantastic, I can see governments and nations just ignoring Calico IP claims under a "public interest" argument, anyways... I think you are overestimating the risk that "they will solve ageing, but be evil about it" and underestimating the obvious risk of "they won't solve ageing" (which, honestly, still probably means we get a lot of interesting science done in the process, so it is still worthwhile to try)

pmoriarty 9y ago
"over a long enough time scale, it doesn't matter, the technology will eventually leak out of their control" That long-term perspective may not be quite as comforting to someone whose loved ones are facing the miseries of old age and death while the elites hold the cure. Sure, eventually, in a 100 years, or 200 years, or who knows how many centuries or millennia, we'll all be equal in a Star Trek utopia, and everyone will have equal access to advanced life-extension tech, but by then those of us who might not have won the startup lottery or otherwise managed to siphon up enough money to matter will be long dead. As for patents, this tech might never be patented. It might be kept completely secret instead.
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- lazaroclapp 9y ago
  Sure, but, I mean, will we get it sooner if private companies are not working on it at the same time as public research institutions are? If we don't have access to the tech because it is being hoarded, or because it does not exist, the effect is the same. I also think it will be hard to hoard it for long, particularly if it really works the way people are assuming it will work ("immortality serum" style). I think that's wishful thinking for now, and that at the very best we will get the Xerox PARC of ageing research, which, honestly, would be victory enough. > It might be kept completely secret instead. Easier said than done. Very few technologies are kept secret in that way. Keep in mind that even for the fission bomb, the Soviets got it fully replicated after just 4 years, and other countries soon followed suit. These days we are all in panic because even marginalized states can afford to build the damn things. The only reason not every developed country has a nuclear arsenal is not secrecy, but legal arrangements and joint defense treaties. Now remember that is literally the strongest conspiracy for scientific secrecy in the history of mankind, with good reasons and everything, and it involves a device for which manufacture is insanely expensive, not just R&D. Medical research is even easier to replicate given even partial information about its workings.

pmoriarty 9y ago

"over a long enough time scale, it doesn't matter, the technology will eventually leak out of their control" That long-term perspective may not be quite as comforting to someone whose loved ones are facing the miseries of old age and death while the elites hold the cure. Sure, eventually, in a 100 years, or 200 years, or who knows how many centuries or millennia, we'll all be equal in a Star Trek utopia, and everyone will have equal access to advanced life-extension tech, but by then those of us who might not have won the startup lottery or otherwise managed to siphon up enough money to matter will be long dead. As for patents, this tech might never be patented. It might be kept completely secret instead.

deleted 9y ago
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lazaroclapp 9y ago
Sure, but, I mean, will we get it sooner if private companies are not working on it at the same time as public research institutions are? If we don't have access to the tech because it is being hoarded, or because it does not exist, the effect is the same. I also think it will be hard to hoard it for long, particularly if it really works the way people are assuming it will work ("immortality serum" style). I think that's wishful thinking for now, and that at the very best we will get the Xerox PARC of ageing research, which, honestly, would be victory enough. > It might be kept completely secret instead. Easier said than done. Very few technologies are kept secret in that way. Keep in mind that even for the fission bomb, the Soviets got it fully replicated after just 4 years, and other countries soon followed suit. These days we are all in panic because even marginalized states can afford to build the damn things. The only reason not every developed country has a nuclear arsenal is not secrecy, but legal arrangements and joint defense treaties. Now remember that is literally the strongest conspiracy for scientific secrecy in the history of mankind, with good reasons and everything, and it involves a device for which manufacture is insanely expensive, not just R&D. Medical research is even easier to replicate given even partial information about its workings.