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Exactly this. Seides and Buffet are saying Buffet will win "unless they get a market crash" (the second in the 10-year period). Yes, hedge funds seek to hedge
by kbutler 10y ago
Exactly this. Seides and Buffet are saying Buffet will win "unless they get a market crash" (the second in the 10-year period).
Yes, hedge funds seek to hedge their bets against bear markets, but if you require two major crashes in 10 years to break even with passive investing, the smart money should go elsewhere.
- spott 10y agoThe average time between stock market crashes is roughly 8 years... so 2 in 10 isn't outrageous.
- sweezyjeezy 10y agoYeah but not a sensible bet to take even odds on. It would be about a 20% chance assuming a Poisson distribution (probably entirely false, but you get the point).