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Being 50% in treasuries right now is not particularly conservative. The Schiller P/E ratio was only higher in 1929 and 1999: http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
by carsongross 9y ago
Being 50% in treasuries right now is not particularly conservative. The Schiller P/E ratio was only higher in 1929 and 1999:
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/ http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
So, broadly, equities look like a pretty bad deal right now.
- the_gastropod 9y agoThe Schiller P/E has historically been pretty useful, but it's not a great tool for comparing pre 2001 and post 2001 market valuations because of changes in GAAP. Check out http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/shiller/ http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/shiller/ for a more in depth explanation.
- carsongross 9y agoThanks for the link, interesting read.
- itamarst 9y agoThere's also q, which has same result as Shiller P/E 10 but is calculated very differently: http://smithers.co.uk/page.php?id=34 http://smithers.co.uk/page.php?id=34
- ryanwaggoner 9y agoI don't time the market. Studies are really clear that people suck at it. You may be convinced you're the exception. I'm convinced that I'm not :)
- carsongross 9y agoThat's certainly a reasonable position.
- ryanwaggoner 9y agoI'm going to start responding to people who disagree like this :)