5 ms·

Tesla's top models currently have a range of about 300 miles on the highway. So today you are only 50 miles from your point being strongly debatable. Why do you

Tesla's top models currently have a range of about 300 miles on the highway. So today you are only 50 miles from your point being strongly debatable. Why do you think 350 or more miles will not be achievable before Level 4 self-driving cars? Battery swap, rather than super-charging, would also solve this problem.

sokoloff 10y ago
Yes, and Tesla's top models cost what again? What percentage of families starting out with two young kids are able to buy Tesla's top models? I get that the prices will come down, but they're not likely to undercut the Honda Accord/Toyota Camry level (which are themselves not even the bottom-of-the-line cars) and certainly not going to undercut the 6-year old ICE commuter car.
- maxsilver 10y ago
  > I get that the prices will come down, but they're not likely to undercut the Honda Accord/Toyota Camry level A used Chevy Volt can be had for about ~$12k (depending on the market), and will cover most common trips with electricity only. But still let you burn gas to get to Grandma's if needed. Minivans are coming out this year that do the same -- in four years, those will be around ~$15k. That's what folks are talking about. In the future, every car will be either fully electric (Tesla, Bolt) or fully electric with an extra gas-engine backup just for long road trips (Volt, BMW i3). There probably won't ever be a conventional gas-only level 4 vehicle, because by the time level 4 becomes common, few people will want a conventional gas-only car at all.
  - sokoloff 10y ago
    That's a pretty smoking deal on the used Volts. I hadn't considered a Volt (or other hybrid) as not "ever be fossil fuel powered", but if you read that as "exclusively ICE" instead of "sometimes ICE", then it certainly qualifies. I commute in a LEAF and love it and would absolutely consider a plug-in hybrid as a next car (or another LEAF).
- prostoalex 10y ago
  > Yes, and Tesla's top models cost what again? What percentage of families starting out with two young kids are able to buy Tesla's top models? Model 3 (or Chevy Bolt) price sticker is reasonably within the range of currently best-selling sedans (Toyota Camry, Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic). If the electricity costs are $0 (public infrastructure and Tesla supercharger network), the 5-year total cost of ownership figures start adding up in favor of electric vehicles. Another variable is service costs - those oil changes can add up, whereas an electric vehicle can reasonably go without a service center visit for a year or more (Tesla's 12-month service consists of washer fluid top-off, wiper replacement and battery replacement for key fob http://www.teslarati.com/what-goes-into-tesla-model-s-annual-service/ http://www.teslarati.com/what-goes-into-tesla-model-s-annual... ) So while the initial price sticker might be higher, TCO figures favor electric for most people.
- Ensorceled 10y ago
  I'm confused. Why do you think Honda and Toyota won't be making electric cars? Why do you think electric cars are always going to have premium pricing? You are strangely focused on the NOW when we are talking about 2040 ... which is 23 years from now.

sokoloff 10y ago

Yes, and Tesla's top models cost what again? What percentage of families starting out with two young kids are able to buy Tesla's top models? I get that the prices will come down, but they're not likely to undercut the Honda Accord/Toyota Camry level (which are themselves not even the bottom-of-the-line cars) and certainly not going to undercut the 6-year old ICE commuter car.

maxsilver 10y ago
> I get that the prices will come down, but they're not likely to undercut the Honda Accord/Toyota Camry level A used Chevy Volt can be had for about ~$12k (depending on the market), and will cover most common trips with electricity only. But still let you burn gas to get to Grandma's if needed. Minivans are coming out this year that do the same -- in four years, those will be around ~$15k. That's what folks are talking about. In the future, every car will be either fully electric (Tesla, Bolt) or fully electric with an extra gas-engine backup just for long road trips (Volt, BMW i3). There probably won't ever be a conventional gas-only level 4 vehicle, because by the time level 4 becomes common, few people will want a conventional gas-only car at all.
- sokoloff 10y ago
  That's a pretty smoking deal on the used Volts. I hadn't considered a Volt (or other hybrid) as not "ever be fossil fuel powered", but if you read that as "exclusively ICE" instead of "sometimes ICE", then it certainly qualifies. I commute in a LEAF and love it and would absolutely consider a plug-in hybrid as a next car (or another LEAF).
prostoalex 10y ago
> Yes, and Tesla's top models cost what again? What percentage of families starting out with two young kids are able to buy Tesla's top models? Model 3 (or Chevy Bolt) price sticker is reasonably within the range of currently best-selling sedans (Toyota Camry, Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic). If the electricity costs are $0 (public infrastructure and Tesla supercharger network), the 5-year total cost of ownership figures start adding up in favor of electric vehicles. Another variable is service costs - those oil changes can add up, whereas an electric vehicle can reasonably go without a service center visit for a year or more (Tesla's 12-month service consists of washer fluid top-off, wiper replacement and battery replacement for key fob http://www.teslarati.com/what-goes-into-tesla-model-s-annual-service/ http://www.teslarati.com/what-goes-into-tesla-model-s-annual... ) So while the initial price sticker might be higher, TCO figures favor electric for most people.
Ensorceled 10y ago
I'm confused. Why do you think Honda and Toyota won't be making electric cars? Why do you think electric cars are always going to have premium pricing? You are strangely focused on the NOW when we are talking about 2040 ... which is 23 years from now.