5 ms·

I think these estimates are very conservative, try to imagine what the sales curve for "cars burning unleaded gasoline" would look like. Once the technology

I think these estimates are very conservative, try to imagine what the sales curve for "cars burning unleaded gasoline" would look like. Once the technology becomes comparable, including infrastructure for battery swaps, regulation will take over. I imagine large cities will just say "no fossil fuel burning vehicles in the downtown core" and "taxis must all be electric" and those numbers will change dramatically. Fossil fuel cars will simply be banned in many (most?) countries. That's not even accounting for the role self-driving vehicles will play, which will kick in long before 2040. There is no need for a full level 4 vehicle to ever be fossil fuel powered.

toretore 10y ago
There's one thing I've been thinking about that I don't see anyone else talking about, which is the role of hybrids in the decline of the ICE. I don't think it's a stretch to imagine that most cars sold in 5 or 10 years will be at least hybrid electric. As battery prices continue to fall, it will make sense to include some electric capacity in addition to an ICE. So let's imagine a future where most new cars have a relatively modest 20 kWh battery with a range of more than 100 Km: Most people, most of the time, drive short distances that will seldom require the use of the combustion engine and its fuel (many hybrids today come with special fuel tanks to prevent the fuel from "going bad"). Buying fuel will become an increasingly rare thing, and people will start to think of it as an expensive inconvenience. The current ICE fleet is reliant on a large, complex and expensive infrastructure to provide this fuel, and as people buy less and less of it, maintaining it will become less and less sustainable. As fueling stations start closing and the fuel prices go up (will they? I'm not sure about this point), it will become even more costly and inconvenient to fuel a hybrid, perpetuating the cycle. At some point, the idea of a noisy, dirty ICE running on expensive, hard-to-get fuel will become so unattractive that it's no longer a viable option for most people. While this decline is happening, the cost, range and performance of all-electric will improve to the point where there really is no other reasonable choice.
- Ensorceled 10y ago
  Good point. Especially the cost part. If you commute less than 100KM and plugin at work ... you could go months without buying gas and paying about 25% of the price of gas for power. So you would really feel the pinch when you needed to buy gasoline.
- karlmdavis 10y ago
  My 2017 Volt is amazing for these reasons and more: best car I've ever owned. It's also completely gameified me reducing my carbon footprint: I do everything I possibly can to avoid letting the gas engine kick in, mostly just because it makes me happy to win that game.
- 6d6b73 10y ago
  There are a lot of similar "long tail" reasons that explain why once cost of electric cars is on par with ice's electrification will speed up. To add to your "gas station" example, most of these stations make profit not from gasoline but from other stuff they sell like cigarettes, sodas, chips etc. Once the traffic decreases, the profitability will drop substantially so their demise will be faster than if you only consider gasoline sales. My predictions: - once electric school buses are available parents will push for their quicker adoption so their kids don't have to breath in the diesel and its waste products. - since electric cars require less maintenance automotive parts stores and car service centers will be hit. No need to change oil every few k miles. No need change your muffler, transmission fluid etc. This will make ice parts availability to drop and price to increase. - if Tesla is successful with its direct sales other manufacturers will eventually follow. Number of dealerships will drop - some stores like Costco offer gas discounts for their customers. If they see that number of electric cars is increasing they will replace that with free charging spots for the best customers. - electric cars will (presumably) not be required to do emission testing, which in turn will require states to lower number of emission testing centers. After a while it's possible that these emission centers will be few and far between, an emission testing will become even bigger annoyance that it already is. - Once number of gas stations starts dropping all of the trucking companies that deliver gas will have harder time making profits. After few of them go bankrupt, gasoline deliver will be more expensive. - Once sales of gasoline substantially decrease, refineries will have more trouble selling their products, so new refineries will not be build. This will again increase price of gasoline but also the price of heating oil. - After electric cars hit 10% of the market, ICEs will be considered a "new smoking". Peer pressure will keep growing, having an ICE will be uncool. - once oil companies stop being as profitable people on the stock market will start moving their money to other stocks. This will force these companies to stop their dividends, which in turn will make them even less attractive. - states will have to increase taxes on gasoline to make up for the lost revenue. Eventually electric cars will be taxed in some way but before that happens gasoline will become even more expensive. - once oil production is in decline because of decreased demand, countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia will have to deal with huge economic problems that could lead to crash of their economies. This will make access to oil even harder raising the price of gas even more. - electric cars will lower cost of batteries, which in turn will make them a better solution for power tools, lawn mowers etc.
sokoloff 10y ago
No need ever? Taking a 350 mile trip to grandma's with the spouse, an infant (and all the infant paraphernalia), a toddler, and dog is still best done with a fossil fuel vehicle today. (The dog precludes practical use of the airlines. The infant and associated crap comes close as well for such a short trip.)
- Ensorceled 10y ago
  Tesla's top models currently have a range of about 300 miles on the highway. So today you are only 50 miles from your point being strongly debatable. Why do you think 350 or more miles will not be achievable before Level 4 self-driving cars? Battery swap, rather than super-charging, would also solve this problem.
  - sokoloff 10y ago
    Yes, and Tesla's top models cost what again? What percentage of families starting out with two young kids are able to buy Tesla's top models? I get that the prices will come down, but they're not likely to undercut the Honda Accord/Toyota Camry level (which are themselves not even the bottom-of-the-line cars) and certainly not going to undercut the 6-year old ICE commuter car.
    - maxsilver 10y ago
      > I get that the prices will come down, but they're not likely to undercut the Honda Accord/Toyota Camry level A used Chevy Volt can be had for about ~$12k (depending on the market), and will cover most common trips with electricity only. But still let you burn gas to get to Grandma's if needed. Minivans are coming out this year that do the same -- in four years, those will be around ~$15k. That's what folks are talking about. In the future, every car will be either fully electric (Tesla, Bolt) or fully electric with an extra gas-engine backup just for long road trips (Volt, BMW i3). There probably won't ever be a conventional gas-only level 4 vehicle, because by the time level 4 becomes common, few people will want a conventional gas-only car at all.
brownbat 10y ago
> "taxis must all be electric" Interesting! So say we convinced the taxi lobby to demand that all ridesharing vehicles were electric as a nakedly protectionist measure, then a year later convinced citizens to pass an "even playing field rule," we might dramatically accelerate electric car adoption. I think I'm being sarcastic, but I'm not 100% sure...

toretore 10y ago

There's one thing I've been thinking about that I don't see anyone else talking about, which is the role of hybrids in the decline of the ICE. I don't think it's a stretch to imagine that most cars sold in 5 or 10 years will be at least hybrid electric. As battery prices continue to fall, it will make sense to include some electric capacity in addition to an ICE. So let's imagine a future where most new cars have a relatively modest 20 kWh battery with a range of more than 100 Km: Most people, most of the time, drive short distances that will seldom require the use of the combustion engine and its fuel (many hybrids today come with special fuel tanks to prevent the fuel from "going bad"). Buying fuel will become an increasingly rare thing, and people will start to think of it as an expensive inconvenience. The current ICE fleet is reliant on a large, complex and expensive infrastructure to provide this fuel, and as people buy less and less of it, maintaining it will become less and less sustainable. As fueling stations start closing and the fuel prices go up (will they? I'm not sure about this point), it will become even more costly and inconvenient to fuel a hybrid, perpetuating the cycle. At some point, the idea of a noisy, dirty ICE running on expensive, hard-to-get fuel will become so unattractive that it's no longer a viable option for most people. While this decline is happening, the cost, range and performance of all-electric will improve to the point where there really is no other reasonable choice.

Ensorceled 10y ago
Good point. Especially the cost part. If you commute less than 100KM and plugin at work ... you could go months without buying gas and paying about 25% of the price of gas for power. So you would really feel the pinch when you needed to buy gasoline.
karlmdavis 10y ago
My 2017 Volt is amazing for these reasons and more: best car I've ever owned. It's also completely gameified me reducing my carbon footprint: I do everything I possibly can to avoid letting the gas engine kick in, mostly just because it makes me happy to win that game.
6d6b73 10y ago
There are a lot of similar "long tail" reasons that explain why once cost of electric cars is on par with ice's electrification will speed up. To add to your "gas station" example, most of these stations make profit not from gasoline but from other stuff they sell like cigarettes, sodas, chips etc. Once the traffic decreases, the profitability will drop substantially so their demise will be faster than if you only consider gasoline sales. My predictions: - once electric school buses are available parents will push for their quicker adoption so their kids don't have to breath in the diesel and its waste products. - since electric cars require less maintenance automotive parts stores and car service centers will be hit. No need to change oil every few k miles. No need change your muffler, transmission fluid etc. This will make ice parts availability to drop and price to increase. - if Tesla is successful with its direct sales other manufacturers will eventually follow. Number of dealerships will drop - some stores like Costco offer gas discounts for their customers. If they see that number of electric cars is increasing they will replace that with free charging spots for the best customers. - electric cars will (presumably) not be required to do emission testing, which in turn will require states to lower number of emission testing centers. After a while it's possible that these emission centers will be few and far between, an emission testing will become even bigger annoyance that it already is. - Once number of gas stations starts dropping all of the trucking companies that deliver gas will have harder time making profits. After few of them go bankrupt, gasoline deliver will be more expensive. - Once sales of gasoline substantially decrease, refineries will have more trouble selling their products, so new refineries will not be build. This will again increase price of gasoline but also the price of heating oil. - After electric cars hit 10% of the market, ICEs will be considered a "new smoking". Peer pressure will keep growing, having an ICE will be uncool. - once oil companies stop being as profitable people on the stock market will start moving their money to other stocks. This will force these companies to stop their dividends, which in turn will make them even less attractive. - states will have to increase taxes on gasoline to make up for the lost revenue. Eventually electric cars will be taxed in some way but before that happens gasoline will become even more expensive. - once oil production is in decline because of decreased demand, countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia will have to deal with huge economic problems that could lead to crash of their economies. This will make access to oil even harder raising the price of gas even more. - electric cars will lower cost of batteries, which in turn will make them a better solution for power tools, lawn mowers etc.

sokoloff 10y ago

No need ever? Taking a 350 mile trip to grandma's with the spouse, an infant (and all the infant paraphernalia), a toddler, and dog is still best done with a fossil fuel vehicle today. (The dog precludes practical use of the airlines. The infant and associated crap comes close as well for such a short trip.)

Ensorceled 10y ago
Tesla's top models currently have a range of about 300 miles on the highway. So today you are only 50 miles from your point being strongly debatable. Why do you think 350 or more miles will not be achievable before Level 4 self-driving cars? Battery swap, rather than super-charging, would also solve this problem.
- sokoloff 10y ago
  Yes, and Tesla's top models cost what again? What percentage of families starting out with two young kids are able to buy Tesla's top models? I get that the prices will come down, but they're not likely to undercut the Honda Accord/Toyota Camry level (which are themselves not even the bottom-of-the-line cars) and certainly not going to undercut the 6-year old ICE commuter car.
  - maxsilver 10y ago
    > I get that the prices will come down, but they're not likely to undercut the Honda Accord/Toyota Camry level A used Chevy Volt can be had for about ~$12k (depending on the market), and will cover most common trips with electricity only. But still let you burn gas to get to Grandma's if needed. Minivans are coming out this year that do the same -- in four years, those will be around ~$15k. That's what folks are talking about. In the future, every car will be either fully electric (Tesla, Bolt) or fully electric with an extra gas-engine backup just for long road trips (Volt, BMW i3). There probably won't ever be a conventional gas-only level 4 vehicle, because by the time level 4 becomes common, few people will want a conventional gas-only car at all.

brownbat 10y ago

> "taxis must all be electric" Interesting! So say we convinced the taxi lobby to demand that all ridesharing vehicles were electric as a nakedly protectionist measure, then a year later convinced citizens to pass an "even playing field rule," we might dramatically accelerate electric car adoption. I think I'm being sarcastic, but I'm not 100% sure...