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I agree but would say a 300 mile range is where the tipping point will be for most people, unless we have a much more dense supercharger network. I haven't been

by flexie 9y ago

I agree but would say a 300 mile range is where the tipping point will be for most people, unless we have a much more dense supercharger network. I haven't been driving anywhere near 300 miles in a single day in the last year and I wouldn't expect to do it without one stop at a gas station, restaurant or rest area. But 200 miles is well within what one does in a strech without stopping, and I've probably done 200 miles in a single day 10 times in the last year.

greglindahl 9y ago
Plenty of Tesla owners don't agree with you, but that's OK: 100% of drivers don't have to agree for it to be a tipping point.
- danderino 9y ago
  They don't agree because Tesla drivers are those who weren't concerned by that in the first place.
  - greglindahl 9y ago
    I have a friend who's super-nervous about his laptop battery. The concept that sold him on owning a Tesla was that if he was home, his car would start with a full battery every morning. He only has to think about refueling on long trips, and then he supercharges.
closeparen 9y ago
I wouldn't mind having to recharge frequently. I mind the anxiety about whether I'll even be able to recharge, and how much of my day I'm going to lose waiting for access to a charger. The 1-2 EV stations in modern garages might cut it while there's hardly ever even one EV parked there, but if adoption outpaces charger installation, they're in for a rough time. If just three people are in line for a public charger, each needing 30 minutes with it, that's a 90 minute wait.
- greglindahl 9y ago
  I've had to wait as long as 15 minutes for a supercharger -- do you have a different experience?
- sokoloff 9y ago
  It's a 90 minute wait iff people execute the handoff like passing a baton in an Olympic relay race. In reality, driver 2 is going to wander off to run a quick errand or get some food (because they can't be sure driver 1 will be ready to drive off at 30m00s000ms), and there will be significant "slippage" in the queue draining.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
mtgx 9y ago
I agree. I think all EVs will ideally have at least a 100 kWh battery pack, which is what will give that 300-350 mile range. Higher-end cars should be switching to 150-200 kWh by 2025. This is also why I think nobody should bother building EV chargers anymore unless they are at least 350 kW (the latest standard for CCS). Because once they are built, they'll probably stay the same for at least 15 years. 50 or 100 kW chargers will seem useless in 15 years.
- gruturo 9y ago
  A 50kW charger may sound useless, but in just a short 10 minute break (use the restroom, have a coffee, pay and get back in the car) it gives you 8.3 kWh - which on a model S, whose efficiency I find rated between 3 and 3.8 miles/kWh, means from 25 to 31 miles of range. It might easily be the topping off you need to comfortably reach your destination (or a fast charger!) And if we're talking about a fast charger, that can mean 62 miles added in 10 minutes - we're quickly getting into not-at-all-useless ranges. Agreed it kind of sucks for a full recharge though. On the other hand I already see people fueling the bare minimum to reach another gas station for brand loyalty/affiliate program rewards.
r00fus 9y ago
That's why EV adoption will begin with suburbian families, where garages and 2 vehicles will preclude the EV usage simply for commutes. I calculated and hardly ever broke 90mi on a commute day. For non-commute days, I can do 300mi on a trip (150 roundtrip), but we have our minivan for that - and it's rare. I would easily buy a 125mi range vehicle (Bolt, Ioniq, eGolf).
- flexie 9y ago
  And that's the thing; if the EV doesn't have a range of around 300miles you would think of it as a second car, a city car, only suitable for commutes and shopping trips. Plenty of people have a second car, but I suspect many second cars were bought as a primary cars and then downgraded to second car once the family got a newer car. Not many people buy a $35,000 second car.
  - r00fus 9y ago
    Are you kidding? The kind of people who can afford a decent second car and the kind who like the idea of an electric are a large and growing population. The "2nd car only for commute" is a big ripe target market, and most folks have a < 100mi daily commute range. I think most folks have figured out that hybrid/electrics are simply lower maintenance. The battery failure/replacement fears have essentially been debunked, and the lack of transmissions/clutches/differentials mean less stressful trips to the mechanic.
tonyedgecombe 9y ago
You are obviously quite young, I'll make three stops on the 210 mile journey I'm making in a couple of weeks.

by flexie 9y ago

greglindahl 9y ago

Plenty of Tesla owners don't agree with you, but that's OK: 100% of drivers don't have to agree for it to be a tipping point.

danderino 9y ago
They don't agree because Tesla drivers are those who weren't concerned by that in the first place.
- greglindahl 9y ago
  I have a friend who's super-nervous about his laptop battery. The concept that sold him on owning a Tesla was that if he was home, his car would start with a full battery every morning. He only has to think about refueling on long trips, and then he supercharges.

closeparen 9y ago

I wouldn't mind having to recharge frequently. I mind the anxiety about whether I'll even be able to recharge, and how much of my day I'm going to lose waiting for access to a charger. The 1-2 EV stations in modern garages might cut it while there's hardly ever even one EV parked there, but if adoption outpaces charger installation, they're in for a rough time. If just three people are in line for a public charger, each needing 30 minutes with it, that's a 90 minute wait.

greglindahl 9y ago
I've had to wait as long as 15 minutes for a supercharger -- do you have a different experience?
sokoloff 9y ago
It's a 90 minute wait iff people execute the handoff like passing a baton in an Olympic relay race. In reality, driver 2 is going to wander off to run a quick errand or get some food (because they can't be sure driver 1 will be ready to drive off at 30m00s000ms), and there will be significant "slippage" in the queue draining.

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

mtgx 9y ago

I agree. I think all EVs will ideally have at least a 100 kWh battery pack, which is what will give that 300-350 mile range. Higher-end cars should be switching to 150-200 kWh by 2025. This is also why I think nobody should bother building EV chargers anymore unless they are at least 350 kW (the latest standard for CCS). Because once they are built, they'll probably stay the same for at least 15 years. 50 or 100 kW chargers will seem useless in 15 years.

gruturo 9y ago
A 50kW charger may sound useless, but in just a short 10 minute break (use the restroom, have a coffee, pay and get back in the car) it gives you 8.3 kWh - which on a model S, whose efficiency I find rated between 3 and 3.8 miles/kWh, means from 25 to 31 miles of range. It might easily be the topping off you need to comfortably reach your destination (or a fast charger!) And if we're talking about a fast charger, that can mean 62 miles added in 10 minutes - we're quickly getting into not-at-all-useless ranges. Agreed it kind of sucks for a full recharge though. On the other hand I already see people fueling the bare minimum to reach another gas station for brand loyalty/affiliate program rewards.

r00fus 9y ago

That's why EV adoption will begin with suburbian families, where garages and 2 vehicles will preclude the EV usage simply for commutes. I calculated and hardly ever broke 90mi on a commute day. For non-commute days, I can do 300mi on a trip (150 roundtrip), but we have our minivan for that - and it's rare. I would easily buy a 125mi range vehicle (Bolt, Ioniq, eGolf).

flexie 9y ago
And that's the thing; if the EV doesn't have a range of around 300miles you would think of it as a second car, a city car, only suitable for commutes and shopping trips. Plenty of people have a second car, but I suspect many second cars were bought as a primary cars and then downgraded to second car once the family got a newer car. Not many people buy a $35,000 second car.
- r00fus 9y ago
  Are you kidding? The kind of people who can afford a decent second car and the kind who like the idea of an electric are a large and growing population. The "2nd car only for commute" is a big ripe target market, and most folks have a < 100mi daily commute range. I think most folks have figured out that hybrid/electrics are simply lower maintenance. The battery failure/replacement fears have essentially been debunked, and the lack of transmissions/clutches/differentials mean less stressful trips to the mechanic.

tonyedgecombe 9y ago

You are obviously quite young, I'll make three stops on the 210 mile journey I'm making in a couple of weeks.