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Welcome to the bursting of the second tech bubble. It's been slow so far, but it'll accelerate soon. Hang on! Why is it that on these threads, nobody seriously

Welcome to the bursting of the second tech bubble. It's been slow so far, but it'll accelerate soon. Hang on! Why is it that on these threads, nobody seriously considers the possibility of a secular decline? Fundraising, after all, has slowed, real estate in south bay has softened, and interest rates are rising (making tech relatively less attractive). Not to mention the scandals that have erased billions; see Theranos. Look at Yik Yak collapsing. A few isolated incidents is to be expected, but there seems to be an emerging pattern. There's a real possibility that articles like this reflect a real bubble bursting.

thesmallestcat 10y ago
You said "a bursting of the bubble," and then asked why people aren't considering a decline. I think most people accept that investors are getting pickier, but that's not the same as your first paragraph (the sole contents of the original comment) suggesting a bubble burst, which by definition is a violent event.
dkarapetyan 10y ago
How is mismanagement and terrible user experience about the tech bubble bursting? How are you making that leap?
- andrewguenther 10y ago
  My guess is that the argument is because companies with mismanagement and terrible user experiences are getting gobs of funding and going public. Not that I necessarily agree, but I can see the argument.
a13n 10y ago
> Fundraising, after all, has slowed This was definitely true Q2-4 last year, but it's made a come back. It feels to me like 2016 was the year where fundraising "corrected" (more accurate than slowed) from "prioritize growth above anything" to "show a path to profitability or you're screwed". I'm even starting to hear from founder peers that I should raise because the seed market's hot again. I think it could easily heat up even more. Theranos is a scandalous outlier. Yik Yak had no path to profitability. Have you been watching the stock market recently? AMZN, TSLA, FB, GOOGL, AAPL have all set huge all time highs.
- empath75 10y ago
  Prices in bubbles surge just before the pop.
  - vkou 10y ago
    Prices in non-bubbles also surge, without a pop. Not to say that we're not in a bubble, but unless you have stronger evidence, the correct thing to say on the subject is: "Who knows!" But perhaps you know something we don't.
ransom1538 10y ago
The only way for a bubble to happen is with liquidity. The pace of selling has to be extremely fast. You can't dump Yik Yak off to the next guy - it's private. You can dump Etsy off on the stock exchange, but, it has been doing poorly for 5 years - so no bubble there - the only sucker is the seller. I am pretty confident people don't understand how bubbles work.

thesmallestcat 10y ago

You said "a bursting of the bubble," and then asked why people aren't considering a decline. I think most people accept that investors are getting pickier, but that's not the same as your first paragraph (the sole contents of the original comment) suggesting a bubble burst, which by definition is a violent event.

dkarapetyan 10y ago

How is mismanagement and terrible user experience about the tech bubble bursting? How are you making that leap?

andrewguenther 10y ago
My guess is that the argument is because companies with mismanagement and terrible user experiences are getting gobs of funding and going public. Not that I necessarily agree, but I can see the argument.

a13n 10y ago

> Fundraising, after all, has slowed This was definitely true Q2-4 last year, but it's made a come back. It feels to me like 2016 was the year where fundraising "corrected" (more accurate than slowed) from "prioritize growth above anything" to "show a path to profitability or you're screwed". I'm even starting to hear from founder peers that I should raise because the seed market's hot again. I think it could easily heat up even more. Theranos is a scandalous outlier. Yik Yak had no path to profitability. Have you been watching the stock market recently? AMZN, TSLA, FB, GOOGL, AAPL have all set huge all time highs.

empath75 10y ago
Prices in bubbles surge just before the pop.
- vkou 10y ago
  Prices in non-bubbles also surge, without a pop. Not to say that we're not in a bubble, but unless you have stronger evidence, the correct thing to say on the subject is: "Who knows!" But perhaps you know something we don't.

ransom1538 10y ago

The only way for a bubble to happen is with liquidity. The pace of selling has to be extremely fast. You can't dump Yik Yak off to the next guy - it's private. You can dump Etsy off on the stock exchange, but, it has been doing poorly for 5 years - so no bubble there - the only sucker is the seller. I am pretty confident people don't understand how bubbles work.