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Correct me if I'm wrong here, but this is saying "their stock tanked, because they had/are having a 'not perfect' quarter, and we based their value on them havi
by FridgeSeal 10y ago
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but this is saying "their stock tanked, because they had/are having a 'not perfect' quarter, and we based their value on them having a perfect quarter".
That seems like they only have themselves to blame-to expect anyone to ever have a 'perfect' quarter and to think nothing will go wrong at all, (and to write off a quarter that is not-perfect-but-still-good) and to base all your expectations on that seems incredibly, incredibly stupid.
Is that what's happening here? Or am I missing something?
- majewsky 10y agoSounds like classical Planning Fallacy to me. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy In a nutshell, the theory is that people tend to plan too optimistically because they look at the (usually small) probability of each problem, but fail to consider the much larger probability of there being problems at all.