3 ms·
You've gotta win pretty big to reverse out a 26% loss followed by a 14% loss. That's 36% over two years. What not enough people consider is the null hypothesis
by moomin 10y ago
You've gotta win pretty big to reverse out a 26% loss followed by a 14% loss. That's 36% over two years.
What not enough people consider is the null hypothesis: that he never had any skill in the first place and just got lucky. There's acres of research supporting this.
- autokad 10y agothe hole is a bit steeper when you consider the sp500 was up 1.38% in 2015 and 11.74% in 2016. so -36% vs +13.12% baseline (didnt bother to compound)