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I think the economy is one of these things that no one can understand. There are just too many players. We live in a world where it's possible for a Harvard dr

I think the economy is one of these things that no one can understand. There are just too many players. We live in a world where it's possible for a Harvard dropout to start a company with $0 and turn it into a $400 billion dollar company in just a few years. It's not so far from the idea that under the right conditions, the fluttering of a butterfly's wings can cause a Hurricane on the other side of the world. I don't think anyone can make accurate predictions about the economy, there are too many things to keep track of. Any perceived trend is rooted in false consensus.

carapace 10y ago
I don't know why you're getting downvoted unless it's because you hit a nerve. No one can actually understand or predict the economy. The high-speed traders, battling algorithms like pokemon, are already a non-linear system far beyond control. If you know enough about "systems theory" et. al. it's totally scary, like bug-out-and-go-surfing scary. An intelligent actor, whether human or AI, will eventually compute its own inadequacy and endure a kind of sea change. (Did you ever see the old movie "Wargames"? It has a wonderful illustration of the same process in the context of global thermonuclear war.) If we were as rational as we like to think asteroid defense would be a bigger thing than it is.
fauigerzigerk 10y ago
>I think the economy is one of these things that no one can understand. I think that's overstating it a bit. The economy is certainly a complex system, but there are patterns we can understand. We do understand how something like Facebook can come to pass in capitalism. We just can't predict where, when, what and and who (sorry, ycombinator can do that of course, but that's an exception :). We do know that debt and leverage comes with certain dangers and also that there are counter forces that mitigate those dangers. We just can't predict very well where and when it gets out of hand. But to those who reject markets on that basis I want to say that society as a whole is a complex system as well. We can't really get rid of that sort of danger. Nations and democracies can be stable and peaceful for a long time and then suddenly fracture and drift towards conflict and hostility for no one's benefit.

carapace 10y ago

I don't know why you're getting downvoted unless it's because you hit a nerve. No one can actually understand or predict the economy. The high-speed traders, battling algorithms like pokemon, are already a non-linear system far beyond control. If you know enough about "systems theory" et. al. it's totally scary, like bug-out-and-go-surfing scary. An intelligent actor, whether human or AI, will eventually compute its own inadequacy and endure a kind of sea change. (Did you ever see the old movie "Wargames"? It has a wonderful illustration of the same process in the context of global thermonuclear war.) If we were as rational as we like to think asteroid defense would be a bigger thing than it is.

fauigerzigerk 10y ago

>I think the economy is one of these things that no one can understand. I think that's overstating it a bit. The economy is certainly a complex system, but there are patterns we can understand. We do understand how something like Facebook can come to pass in capitalism. We just can't predict where, when, what and and who (sorry, ycombinator can do that of course, but that's an exception :). We do know that debt and leverage comes with certain dangers and also that there are counter forces that mitigate those dangers. We just can't predict very well where and when it gets out of hand. But to those who reject markets on that basis I want to say that society as a whole is a complex system as well. We can't really get rid of that sort of danger. Nations and democracies can be stable and peaceful for a long time and then suddenly fracture and drift towards conflict and hostility for no one's benefit.