5 ms·

Once again with "There are no shortages, there is merely a disagreement with reality about how much labor costs." It does not astound me that companies are hav

by patio11 10y ago

Once again with "There are no shortages, there is merely a disagreement with reality about how much labor costs." It does not astound me that companies are having difficulty hiring white collar workers for $2k a month with the expectation of traditional Japanese working conditions but with traditional American expectations about job security.

bostik 10y ago
With an unemployment rate at 2.8%, I would say that there actually is a shortage. That figure is already lower than the expected unemployment rate at "full employment" scenario. [0, 1] At the same time I am not going to dispute your opening line: because there sure as hell is a disagreement on labour cost too. Which brings up another fascinating point: the situation is Japan is going to be a data feast for economists. A modern, technologically advanced country going through such a shortage of labour that it's affecting the equilibrium and general conditions of the labour market. 0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_Employment_in_a_Free_Society https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_Employment_in_a_Free_Soci... 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_employment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_employment
- runeks 10y ago
  Why does full employment indicate a shortage, in your opinion? If 2.8% of the iron we dig out of the ground remains unused, is there a shortage of iron? In my world this would indicate abundance.
  - andy_ppp 10y ago
    Economists consider around 5% unemployment healthy, allows for people to retrain and move jobs and it's better to have some slack in the system while people move around.
- Camillo 10y ago
  Why do we even bother discussing the unemployment rate any more? It is now common knowledge that it does not include people who have given up on finding a job, people who are underemployed, people who went on disability as a replacement for unemployment subsidies, etc. I think at this point we can just move on. I will state it explicitly: the notion of "expected unemployment rate at full employment" is meaningless. Whatever the supposed number is, it tells us nothing and deserves no discussion.
  - mistermann 10y ago
    I would agree with this, governments (western at least) have distorted the measurement of so many statistics (inflation in Canada is <2% because they essentially exclude housing costs, as if that's a minor part of a typical family's budget) that historical comparisons are a joke. I've had a question about Japan for a long time I hope someone reading may have some insight: The nature of the Japanese workplace and society is so unique on the planet, does anyone know if there has ever been an in-depth economic study trying to translate some of it into numbers? For example, on one hand you have the negative economic effect of "overstaffing" (my word), or having employees doing really quite unnecessary (ignoring a variable increase in pleasantness) things. Or, staying until 10PM pretending to work. Both of these must hurt productivity numbers big time. But on the other hand, Japan enjoys a relative lack of expenses for many societal ills like various crimes, welfare, drug abuse, etc which would to a degree cancel out the above expenses. It's obviously very complex, but I wonder if anyone has ever made a competent attempt at putting some of this into numbers?
    - randomdata 10y ago
      > inflation in Canada is <2% because they essentially exclude housing costs The practical month to month housing costs are included. Rent is an item in the basket of goods, as are mortgage payments, insurance payments, etc.[1] > as if that's a minor part of a typical family's budget What is missing is the "once in a lifetime" down payment made on the purchase of a home. But that happens so infrequently that it is difficult to see how spending changes over time. In terms of family budgeting it doesn't seem completely unreasonable to exclude it - you don't really need to budget for it. [1] http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/62-001-x/2017003/tbl/tbl-4-2-eng.htm http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/62-001-x/2017003/tbl/tbl-4-2-en...
      - mistermann 10y ago
        Reading that I can see how one might come to the wrong conclusion (that actual housing costs are what is used to calculate inflation), that is likely in fact the intent. The reality though is different: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/cpi-doesnt-fully-measure-household-inflation-and-it-wasnt-meant-to/article15551986/ http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/ec... Think about it: how can you have ~1% GDP growth, flat or diminishing wages, but housing prices (the largest purchase any family will ever make, 10+ years of salary) rising at 5% to 30% (in extreme cases) per year, year after year after year, with no drop in other spending categories, but somehow inflation is <2%? Where is the money coming from to drive this housing bubble? So what we have here is our government deliberately misleading us on incredibly important economic matters, that are massively distorting our economy and the economic behavior of individuals.
- ericdykstra 10y ago
  I'm not too worried. The economy will adjust to the aging/declining population via automation, downsizing, etc. The quality of life for the average Japanese person is very high, and I don't see that changing any time soon. Economists in general are very doom-and-gloom and say that Japan needs mass immigration to balance the population decline, but that would clearly be a mistake. Here's an interesting video on the subject that mostly echoes my views: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3BYCK-3jPc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3BYCK-3jPc
  - woodpanel 10y ago
    While I echo your view about Japan for the most part, that youtube video you've posted lost me at "the banking cartel that owns all governments"...

by patio11 10y ago

bostik 10y ago

With an unemployment rate at 2.8%, I would say that there actually is a shortage. That figure is already lower than the expected unemployment rate at "full employment" scenario. [0, 1] At the same time I am not going to dispute your opening line: because there sure as hell is a disagreement on labour cost too. Which brings up another fascinating point: the situation is Japan is going to be a data feast for economists. A modern, technologically advanced country going through such a shortage of labour that it's affecting the equilibrium and general conditions of the labour market. 0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_Employment_in_a_Free_Society https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_Employment_in_a_Free_Soci... 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_employment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_employment

runeks 10y ago
Why does full employment indicate a shortage, in your opinion? If 2.8% of the iron we dig out of the ground remains unused, is there a shortage of iron? In my world this would indicate abundance.
- andy_ppp 10y ago
  Economists consider around 5% unemployment healthy, allows for people to retrain and move jobs and it's better to have some slack in the system while people move around.
Camillo 10y ago
Why do we even bother discussing the unemployment rate any more? It is now common knowledge that it does not include people who have given up on finding a job, people who are underemployed, people who went on disability as a replacement for unemployment subsidies, etc. I think at this point we can just move on. I will state it explicitly: the notion of "expected unemployment rate at full employment" is meaningless. Whatever the supposed number is, it tells us nothing and deserves no discussion.
- mistermann 10y ago
  I would agree with this, governments (western at least) have distorted the measurement of so many statistics (inflation in Canada is <2% because they essentially exclude housing costs, as if that's a minor part of a typical family's budget) that historical comparisons are a joke. I've had a question about Japan for a long time I hope someone reading may have some insight: The nature of the Japanese workplace and society is so unique on the planet, does anyone know if there has ever been an in-depth economic study trying to translate some of it into numbers? For example, on one hand you have the negative economic effect of "overstaffing" (my word), or having employees doing really quite unnecessary (ignoring a variable increase in pleasantness) things. Or, staying until 10PM pretending to work. Both of these must hurt productivity numbers big time. But on the other hand, Japan enjoys a relative lack of expenses for many societal ills like various crimes, welfare, drug abuse, etc which would to a degree cancel out the above expenses. It's obviously very complex, but I wonder if anyone has ever made a competent attempt at putting some of this into numbers?
  - randomdata 10y ago
    > inflation in Canada is <2% because they essentially exclude housing costs The practical month to month housing costs are included. Rent is an item in the basket of goods, as are mortgage payments, insurance payments, etc.[1] > as if that's a minor part of a typical family's budget What is missing is the "once in a lifetime" down payment made on the purchase of a home. But that happens so infrequently that it is difficult to see how spending changes over time. In terms of family budgeting it doesn't seem completely unreasonable to exclude it - you don't really need to budget for it. [1] http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/62-001-x/2017003/tbl/tbl-4-2-eng.htm http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/62-001-x/2017003/tbl/tbl-4-2-en...
    - mistermann 10y ago
      Reading that I can see how one might come to the wrong conclusion (that actual housing costs are what is used to calculate inflation), that is likely in fact the intent. The reality though is different: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/cpi-doesnt-fully-measure-household-inflation-and-it-wasnt-meant-to/article15551986/ http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/ec... Think about it: how can you have ~1% GDP growth, flat or diminishing wages, but housing prices (the largest purchase any family will ever make, 10+ years of salary) rising at 5% to 30% (in extreme cases) per year, year after year after year, with no drop in other spending categories, but somehow inflation is <2%? Where is the money coming from to drive this housing bubble? So what we have here is our government deliberately misleading us on incredibly important economic matters, that are massively distorting our economy and the economic behavior of individuals.
ericdykstra 10y ago
I'm not too worried. The economy will adjust to the aging/declining population via automation, downsizing, etc. The quality of life for the average Japanese person is very high, and I don't see that changing any time soon. Economists in general are very doom-and-gloom and say that Japan needs mass immigration to balance the population decline, but that would clearly be a mistake. Here's an interesting video on the subject that mostly echoes my views: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3BYCK-3jPc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3BYCK-3jPc
- woodpanel 10y ago
  While I echo your view about Japan for the most part, that youtube video you've posted lost me at "the banking cartel that owns all governments"...