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Relocating billions of people is going to cause massive political disruption and the rise of all kinds of hostility between groups, including violence. Relocat
by dkarl 10y ago
Relocating billions of people is going to cause massive political disruption and the rise of all kinds of hostility between groups, including violence.
Relocating billions of dollars of economic production is going to cause significant loss of production, especially when a certain percentage of people prefer to waste away uselessly in place, like Trump's coal miners and the rust belt layoffs of a previous generation, instead of finding a role in the new economic order. We'll need people to move and change, and instead a certain percentage of them will stay home and drink and pray for everything to go back the way it was.
Relocating billions of dollars of agriculture is also not going to happen without a hitch. Is our agriculture flexible enough to avoid a significant loss of production? In the US I guess we'll call the bluff (or maybe not?) of all these subsidized farmers we've been paying to maintain extra growing capacity. There will be famine in many places.
Given the "stick your head in a bottle and pray for everything to go back to the way it was" mentality, I think the disruption of global warming will be a huge push to automate entire industries. Either you force people to move and work, which sounds horrific, or you find a way not to rely on them. The best way to derisk your reliance on low- and middle-wage workers is to rely on fewer of them. The technical/professional class, which already practices and values mobility, will consolidate control, while workforces who do not get on that bandwagon will be further reduced in relevance. Maybe the entire economy will come to resemble the petroleum extraction industry, where a small number of nomadic, relatively high skill, relatively highly paid blue collar workers are the only blue collar workers needed to sustain an entire industry. Huge numbers of people will live on public assistance in formerly productive areas, dwarfing the numbers left behind in the wake of previous economic disruptions.
Still, even in the best case scenario, we will be finding "democratic" ways to force large populations to move and other populations to make room for them.
- eli_gottlieb 10y ago>Relocating billions of dollars of economic production is going to cause significant loss of production, especially when a certain percentage of people prefer to waste away uselessly in place, like Trump's coal miners and the rust belt layoffs of a previous generation, instead of finding a role in the new economic order. You mean the "new economic order" in which wages for blue-collar workers have been falling for decades, while we also cut the welfare state, leaving most of these people too indebted and impoverished to move for work, which wouldn't help anyway because there just aren't that many well-paying jobs?