5 ms·

It is not a coincidence that Uber's competitors are all raising money at this point in time. It was hard a year ago. Uber's struggles have not only boosted the

by ziszis 9y ago

It is not a coincidence that Uber's competitors are all raising money at this point in time. It was hard a year ago. Uber's struggles have not only boosted the metrics for competitors [1], but there is increasingly a plausible story about how Uber could fail. 1: http://www.thedrive.com/tech/9739/lyft-bookings-ridership-soar-as-uber-deals-with-controversy http://www.thedrive.com/tech/9739/lyft-bookings-ridership-so...

forgotpwtomain 9y ago
The increasingly plausible story of Uber failing is Google or other big players beating them by a large margin to self-driving cars (including for the kind of taxi-service Uber provides). None of these smaller players (aside from Didi which appears to be quite large and backed by internal Chinese interests) give the semblance of having even a minutia of a chance vs. Google.
- Danihan 9y ago
  Even with $5B in capital? I know building a self-driving car is hard, I don't think it's that hard though.
  - pizza 9y ago
    Well.. it's been a long-sought dream https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_autonomous_cars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_autonomous_cars
  - argonaut 9y ago
    Self-driving is not going to be solved by throwing money at it. If it was, Google would have "solved" it already and Apple wouldn't have abandoned their effort. The obvious shortage is engineering talent. This is more debatable (many people, like Elon Musk, don't believe this to be the case), but the field also needs one or more research breakthroughs, especially in the realm of planning and reasoning. Most of the machine learning in self-driving cars goes towards perception / detection / mapping. The actual decision-making is still heuristics and hard-coded rules.
    - chronic940 9y ago
      > The actual decision-making is still heuristics and hard-coded rules. The planning system always be hard coded rules. Perception, fine, throw the latest CNN at it. Planning and control, better stick to the DMV/NHTSA traffic book.
    - hkarthik 9y ago
      Network and data infrastructure is also a challenge for self driving cars and has a ways to go. The data produced by a single self driving car can be pretty staggering (I've heard estimates as high as 5 TB/minute). Now think about transferring that much data around a fleet of cars over current LTE wireless data connections. Even if someone gets it working in a small area, it will take years of investment in network infra to make it truly ubiquitious. Barring some major technical breakthroughs, I just don't see the current tech that these companies are testing being scalable at the same level as GPS, cellular data, etc.
  - jessriedel 9y ago
    Self-driving cars are going to produce >$100B/year in value (probably at least $1T/year worldwide). They are going to cost a lot more than $5B to develop. Google has >$80B of cash on hand and Apple has >$230B. Those companies would spend $5B to develop self-driving cars in a heartbeat if they could, but they can't.
  - baybal2 9y ago
    What a self driving car has to do with a taxi company?
- ithinkinstereo 9y ago
  Perhaps Didi can ally themselves with Baidu. Not sure how Baidu's self-driving program compares to its western rivals, but it's definitely the most advanced out of the Chinese tech giants.
  - yeldarb 9y ago
    Uber China (which Didi acquired) already was. I recently listened to the Acuired podcast about the history of Didi/Uber in China and found it incredibly interesting: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/acquired-a-podcast-about-technology-acquisitions-ipos/id1050462261?mt=2&i=1000382052814 https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/acquired-a-podcast-about...
- xiaoma 9y ago
  In China, it's Google who doesn't have a chance. Their search, email, and app store are all blocked. There's no reason to think they'd have any more success as a car company.
- pdog 9y ago
  This meme that transportation network companies are waiting for self-driving cars to eliminate drivers has been promulgated for years, but does anyone really know what will happen when self-driving cars are widely deployed? It's pure speculation.
  - Fricken 9y ago
    As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.
  - frgtpsswrdlame 9y ago
    It's pure speculation as to how quickly it will even happen. I can imagine a forum similar to this one back in the 60's, 70's or 80's talking about how cold fusion will revolutionize the world. Uber's problems are in the immediate term, the idea that they will even exist when true self-driving cars actually make it to market is far-fetched already.
nullnilvoid 9y ago
Didi is not Uber's competitor any more. Didi acquired Uber China, is an investor in Uber, and owns Uber shares. So does Uber in Didi. They don't compete directly in any major market at this moment.
- antisthenes 9y ago
  That actually makes perfect sense. Both of them realized they couldn't make any money without becoming a cartel and colluding.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
- JumpCrisscross 9y ago
  > they don't compete directly in any major market at this moment Emphasis on "at this moment".
- netvarun 9y ago
  Could you confirm/cite a source that didi owns shares in uber? My understanding was that uber got ~20% of didi shares in exchange for ceding the Chinese market.
  - nullnilvoid 9y ago
    When Didi acquired Uber China, Didi also invested $1B in Uber and got some Uber shares in return. Here is the link to WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-s-didi-chuxing-to-acquire-rival-uber-s-chinese-operations-1470024403 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-s-didi-chuxing-to-acquire...
    - Animats 9y ago
      Hm. When Uber runs out of cash next year, is Didi the likely buyer?
- tyingq 9y ago

by ziszis 9y ago

forgotpwtomain 9y ago

The increasingly plausible story of Uber failing is Google or other big players beating them by a large margin to self-driving cars (including for the kind of taxi-service Uber provides). None of these smaller players (aside from Didi which appears to be quite large and backed by internal Chinese interests) give the semblance of having even a minutia of a chance vs. Google.

Danihan 9y ago
Even with $5B in capital? I know building a self-driving car is hard, I don't think it's that hard though.
- pizza 9y ago
  Well.. it's been a long-sought dream https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_autonomous_cars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_autonomous_cars
- argonaut 9y ago
  Self-driving is not going to be solved by throwing money at it. If it was, Google would have "solved" it already and Apple wouldn't have abandoned their effort. The obvious shortage is engineering talent. This is more debatable (many people, like Elon Musk, don't believe this to be the case), but the field also needs one or more research breakthroughs, especially in the realm of planning and reasoning. Most of the machine learning in self-driving cars goes towards perception / detection / mapping. The actual decision-making is still heuristics and hard-coded rules.
  - chronic940 9y ago
    > The actual decision-making is still heuristics and hard-coded rules. The planning system always be hard coded rules. Perception, fine, throw the latest CNN at it. Planning and control, better stick to the DMV/NHTSA traffic book.
  - hkarthik 9y ago
    Network and data infrastructure is also a challenge for self driving cars and has a ways to go. The data produced by a single self driving car can be pretty staggering (I've heard estimates as high as 5 TB/minute). Now think about transferring that much data around a fleet of cars over current LTE wireless data connections. Even if someone gets it working in a small area, it will take years of investment in network infra to make it truly ubiquitious. Barring some major technical breakthroughs, I just don't see the current tech that these companies are testing being scalable at the same level as GPS, cellular data, etc.
- jessriedel 9y ago
  Self-driving cars are going to produce >$100B/year in value (probably at least $1T/year worldwide). They are going to cost a lot more than $5B to develop. Google has >$80B of cash on hand and Apple has >$230B. Those companies would spend $5B to develop self-driving cars in a heartbeat if they could, but they can't.
- baybal2 9y ago
  What a self driving car has to do with a taxi company?
ithinkinstereo 9y ago
Perhaps Didi can ally themselves with Baidu. Not sure how Baidu's self-driving program compares to its western rivals, but it's definitely the most advanced out of the Chinese tech giants.
- yeldarb 9y ago
  Uber China (which Didi acquired) already was. I recently listened to the Acuired podcast about the history of Didi/Uber in China and found it incredibly interesting: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/acquired-a-podcast-about-technology-acquisitions-ipos/id1050462261?mt=2&i=1000382052814 https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/acquired-a-podcast-about...
xiaoma 9y ago
In China, it's Google who doesn't have a chance. Their search, email, and app store are all blocked. There's no reason to think they'd have any more success as a car company.
pdog 9y ago
This meme that transportation network companies are waiting for self-driving cars to eliminate drivers has been promulgated for years, but does anyone really know what will happen when self-driving cars are widely deployed? It's pure speculation.
- Fricken 9y ago
  As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.
- frgtpsswrdlame 9y ago
  It's pure speculation as to how quickly it will even happen. I can imagine a forum similar to this one back in the 60's, 70's or 80's talking about how cold fusion will revolutionize the world. Uber's problems are in the immediate term, the idea that they will even exist when true self-driving cars actually make it to market is far-fetched already.

nullnilvoid 9y ago

Didi is not Uber's competitor any more. Didi acquired Uber China, is an investor in Uber, and owns Uber shares. So does Uber in Didi. They don't compete directly in any major market at this moment.

antisthenes 9y ago
That actually makes perfect sense. Both of them realized they couldn't make any money without becoming a cartel and colluding.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
JumpCrisscross 9y ago
> they don't compete directly in any major market at this moment Emphasis on "at this moment".
netvarun 9y ago
Could you confirm/cite a source that didi owns shares in uber? My understanding was that uber got ~20% of didi shares in exchange for ceding the Chinese market.
- nullnilvoid 9y ago
  When Didi acquired Uber China, Didi also invested $1B in Uber and got some Uber shares in return. Here is the link to WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-s-didi-chuxing-to-acquire-rival-uber-s-chinese-operations-1470024403 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-s-didi-chuxing-to-acquire...
  - Animats 9y ago
    Hm. When Uber runs out of cash next year, is Didi the likely buyer?
tyingq 9y ago