I agree, Kurzweil's analyses are just bunk, but they work reasonably well as a subjective "intuition pump". You can't logically claim anything from the "acceler

I agree, Kurzweil's analyses are just bunk, but they work reasonably well as a subjective "intuition pump". You can't logically claim anything from the "accelerating curves", except that technology does seem to be "accelerating" a lot. So "exponentially accelerating technological development" does not imply that there will be world-changing effects. To me the whole "singularity" thing comes down to these two beliefs: a) AI is feasible. b) When true AI appears on the scene it will have a profound impact on humanity. If I ignore all the confusing and contradictory definitions of the word "singularity", then my claim is "appearance of AI leads to singularity" as opposed to Kurzweil's "accelerating change observed so far will lead to singularity".