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Interesting that the possibility of training a computer to replace parts of your job has existed for a while. There is an excellent, thought-provoking paper by
by jtraffic 9y ago
Interesting that the possibility of training a computer to replace parts of your job has existed for a while. There is an excellent, thought-provoking paper by Robin Dawes that shows that a linear regression trained on human decisions will soon beat the decisions of the human, because it will pick up the trend and follow it with less variance in the future. He refers to this idea as "bootstrapping."[0] (obviously not the same bootstrapping statisticians are used to).
The takeaway was that experts should make decisions about which variables should go in the regression and the signs they should have. The model should produce the forecasts.
Real world application: doctors should figure out which tests to run, models should say whether the patient has the disease conditional on the test results.
[0] http://www.niaoren.info/pdf/Beauty/9.pdf http://www.niaoren.info/pdf/Beauty/9.pdf