Surely the amount of disagreement on this makes it clear that it's not a 'near certainty'? Furthermore, an issue such as 'the election of a US President' strike

Surely the amount of disagreement on this makes it clear that it's not a 'near certainty'? Furthermore, an issue such as 'the election of a US President' strikes me as so inherently complex that we can say very little with near certainty. That said, I'm very open to hearing why you think this is a certainty (honestly!).