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This is probably easier for most people to read: http://www.timelessinvestor.com/2017/04/27/use-index-to-short-americas-malls-from-wsj/ http://www.timelessinve
by chollida1 10y ago
This is probably easier for most people to read:
http://www.timelessinvestor.com/2017/04/27/use-index-to-short-americas-malls-from-wsj/ http://www.timelessinvestor.com/2017/04/27/use-index-to-shor...
From the article:
> When Mr. Yip cast a critical eye on regional malls’ debt in 2015, the CMBX 6 index was trading near its full value, implying a very low probability of defaults.
> Mr. Yip visited malls in Connecticut, Louisiana and elsewhere while on work trips and vacations, sometime taking his family along with him.
> He would walk three times around each shopping center, studying its mix of stores and chatting with store owners, workers and shoppers.
> He noticed some malls seemed poorly maintained and outdated, with a high concentration of mom-and-pop shops that, he figured, probably weren’t paying much in rent. Locally owned stores such as these have less staying power than stores that are part of national retail chains.
The above might be one of the better descriptions of what it can be like to be a hedge fund manager. Just like Steve Carrell's team in "The Big Short" going out to Florida and Vegas to talk to house owners and see empty subdivisions for themselves, the real world job of managing money is alot less sexy than I think alot of people believe it to be.
It's a lot of work going down avenues that end up as dead ends only to find a single potential winning idea after 6 months of work.
This guy's team had to get the hypothesis, and then do the leg work, think things that don't scale, and then even though they think they are right, you still need to find out a way to short shopping malls.
Before today, I've never heard of the Markit index CMBX 6, I'm pretty sure they spent alot of their time just finding the correct vehicle to short shopping malls with and even with this it's not a great one to one match for their thesis, but its as good as they could get.
As heard at one poker tournament that was filled with mostly hedge fund employee's. "So many good shorts, so few reliable ways to short them."
- imgabe 10y agoHonestly, flying around the country to check out different businesses sounds like a lot of fun to me.
- scj 10y agoI can imagine it'd be like fishing or hunting. Relaxing if you're doing it as a hobby, potentially frustrating if unsuccessful and your livelihood depends on it.
- ComradeTaco 10y agoIf you're at the executive level you likely have enough connections and savings that you can afford to occasionally fail without substantially affecting your quality of life.
- matt_wulfeck 10y agoAnybody can risk enough to fail in an irreparable way.
- knightofmars 10y agoThat doesn't mean anybody _will_ risk enough to fail in an irreparable way.
- toomuchtodo 10y agoIt's more like being a journalist with billions of dollars behind you.
- markdown 10y agoOr a detective investigating situations in which a favourable outcome means you make boatloads of money.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- thrownblown 10y agoA lot of people paid a lot of money to wander aimlessly around malls for a solid 2 decades.
- ozi 10y agoPrivate equity for a company like DE Shaw is pretty fun and fascinating.
- jonknee 10y ago> The above might be one of the better descriptions of what it can be like to be a hedge fund manager. Or more likely, being on the staff of a hedge fund. I doubt the boss normally does all the walking tours personally.
- eigenvalue 10y agoOr you could just short the stocks of the class B mall REITS (like PEI and CBL), which are ~8x levered.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- folli 10y agoYou just made the job of managing money sound sexier than I believed it to be.