5 ms·

It's behind a paywall but take these public short position declaration with a grain of salt - it serves them and their financial positions when it gets media ex

It's behind a paywall but take these public short position declaration with a grain of salt - it serves them and their financial positions when it gets media exposure.

Arizhel 9y ago
I agree, but on the face of it it does seem to make sense: there's no shortage of articles now about the "retail implosion", and lots of stores really are closing: Macy's, Sears/Kmart, etc. If a mall's anchor stores close, that can mean the death of the mall because other tenants will pull out (their leases usually allow this in the case of anchor store closure). Personally, if I were a hedge fund manager, I'd be really careful with this and pick carefully which malls (or rather, the companies that own them) I think are going to fail. The newer, trendy "lifestyle centers" seem to be doing just fine mostly, and even the places like Macy's are still hanging on in some places, just not in others. Macy's isn't going out of business any time soon, but they are downsizing a lot, which means certain locations just aren't viable any more. Even regular malls are still doing OK in many places, but that segment of the market is shrinking.
- brilliantcode 9y ago
  It seems like Luxury stores are on the rise and doing great but all these retail shops aimed at the general public in malls is struggling. In my humble opinion, it's a sign of the increasing wealth transfer from the poor to the rich. The middle class is disappearing and it looks like they are taking the Mall away....they realized vast majority just window shop.
  - brilliantcode 9y ago
    looks like the millionaires of HN don't like hearing this haha!
- criddell 9y ago
  I was in a mall earlier this year and went into the big department stores and looked around (JCP, Macy's, Dillard's, and Sears). It's been many years since I was in one of those stores and it felt like I had stepped out of a time machine. The stores felt very old fashioned. The decor, the sounds, the layout, everything made me feel like it was 1995 again. This morning on his blog, Om Malik wrote this: > United Arrows is doing retail right — in Japan. A lot more US retails chains should be paying attention to them and their formula. They have 256 stores and yet everyone of them feels special. Everything in their store is thoughtfully and tastefully curated. I've never been in a United Arrows store, but giving each store it's own feeling seems like the right way to do things today.
  - ghaff 9y ago
    That's true (especially Sears). Though, to be honest, even when I walk into a higher-end place that is clearly not cookie cutter, I'm still ready to get out of there after 10 minutes. I'm just not the department store (or shopping mall) demographic for the most part. Except for the occasional Apple Store maybe and maybe a Target I just have very little reason to frequent most of the places attached to malls in the US.
- ghaff 9y ago
  Co-tenancy provisions may not let them pull out but, even if they don't, they probably mandate a reduction in the lease. I was talking with a friend of mine who follows retail stocks and she said that these co-tenancy provisions are likely to be a big deal given the number of chains that are common anchor stores in serious trouble. She thinks that as many as 1/3 of rural malls may close over the coming years.
- cat199 9y ago
  In my opinion, alot of this is due to greed/ the need to constantly short sightedly 'improve profits' - Rent, retail prices, etc. are only allowed by managers/owners to go up, eventually creating a situation where everything at the mall and similar properties are so expensive that no one shops there.. Like restauraunts that are empty but insist on charging $20 a plate because that's their 'business model'.. Fill the place up, then raise the price.. if it starts thinning out, lower it.. which is how the 'free market' is supposed to work.. but abstract ownership and financialization shift the actual 'commerce' into participation in equity markets rather than on-the-ground operations...

It's behind a paywall but take these public short position declaration with a grain of salt - it serves them and their financial positions when it gets media exposure.

Arizhel 9y ago

I agree, but on the face of it it does seem to make sense: there's no shortage of articles now about the "retail implosion", and lots of stores really are closing: Macy's, Sears/Kmart, etc. If a mall's anchor stores close, that can mean the death of the mall because other tenants will pull out (their leases usually allow this in the case of anchor store closure). Personally, if I were a hedge fund manager, I'd be really careful with this and pick carefully which malls (or rather, the companies that own them) I think are going to fail. The newer, trendy "lifestyle centers" seem to be doing just fine mostly, and even the places like Macy's are still hanging on in some places, just not in others. Macy's isn't going out of business any time soon, but they are downsizing a lot, which means certain locations just aren't viable any more. Even regular malls are still doing OK in many places, but that segment of the market is shrinking.

brilliantcode 9y ago
It seems like Luxury stores are on the rise and doing great but all these retail shops aimed at the general public in malls is struggling. In my humble opinion, it's a sign of the increasing wealth transfer from the poor to the rich. The middle class is disappearing and it looks like they are taking the Mall away....they realized vast majority just window shop.
- brilliantcode 9y ago
  looks like the millionaires of HN don't like hearing this haha!
criddell 9y ago
I was in a mall earlier this year and went into the big department stores and looked around (JCP, Macy's, Dillard's, and Sears). It's been many years since I was in one of those stores and it felt like I had stepped out of a time machine. The stores felt very old fashioned. The decor, the sounds, the layout, everything made me feel like it was 1995 again. This morning on his blog, Om Malik wrote this: > United Arrows is doing retail right — in Japan. A lot more US retails chains should be paying attention to them and their formula. They have 256 stores and yet everyone of them feels special. Everything in their store is thoughtfully and tastefully curated. I've never been in a United Arrows store, but giving each store it's own feeling seems like the right way to do things today.
- ghaff 9y ago
  That's true (especially Sears). Though, to be honest, even when I walk into a higher-end place that is clearly not cookie cutter, I'm still ready to get out of there after 10 minutes. I'm just not the department store (or shopping mall) demographic for the most part. Except for the occasional Apple Store maybe and maybe a Target I just have very little reason to frequent most of the places attached to malls in the US.
ghaff 9y ago
Co-tenancy provisions may not let them pull out but, even if they don't, they probably mandate a reduction in the lease. I was talking with a friend of mine who follows retail stocks and she said that these co-tenancy provisions are likely to be a big deal given the number of chains that are common anchor stores in serious trouble. She thinks that as many as 1/3 of rural malls may close over the coming years.
cat199 9y ago
In my opinion, alot of this is due to greed/ the need to constantly short sightedly 'improve profits' - Rent, retail prices, etc. are only allowed by managers/owners to go up, eventually creating a situation where everything at the mall and similar properties are so expensive that no one shops there.. Like restauraunts that are empty but insist on charging $20 a plate because that's their 'business model'.. Fill the place up, then raise the price.. if it starts thinning out, lower it.. which is how the 'free market' is supposed to work.. but abstract ownership and financialization shift the actual 'commerce' into participation in equity markets rather than on-the-ground operations...