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At this point I assume only that we've found evidence showing humans got to Australia 40-60k years ago. I suspect they (we?) arrived earlier in smaller numbers

At this point I assume only that we've found evidence showing humans got to Australia 40-60k years ago. I suspect they (we?) arrived earlier in smaller numbers that we haven't detected yet.

BurningFrog 10y ago
Typically a population either grows exponentially or vanishes. Remaining small but alive for thousands of years is not entirely unthinkable, but it's very unlikely.
- riazrizvi 10y ago
  An isolated population seed, yes. But a sub-population that can be re-seeded by the main one, no. Homo Erectus has been discovered as far as SE Asia 1 or 2 million years ago. Also typically a population grows depending on birth-death rates which reach quick limits in places of low resources. This is self-evident from different population sizes in different geographic habitats. Instead human populations mushroomed only in select places. See Guns, Germs and Steel by Diamond for more.
  - BurningFrog 10y ago
    Sure, but an unpopulated Australia is hardly a place of low resources. The expansion possibilities would be enormous. Even if your colony is surrounded by impenetrable deserts, I'd think you could always propagate along the coast, living off the ocean. That I'm just some internet guy speculating without any deep knowledge is probably obvious, but let me make it extra clear!
    - flukus 10y ago
      Impenetrable deserts aren't known for their abundance of fresh water. Just having resources available isn't everything either, you have to know how to extract those resources, this is a massive barrier to a primitive (excuse the term) culture landing on an alien continent, separated for millions of years. Living off the ocean is also incredibly dangerous.
- dragonwriter 10y ago
  > Typically a population either grows exponentially or vanishes. Well, logistically limited by the carrying capacity of the local area with available technology, etc. But logistic growth looks exponential...until it doesn't.
- restalis 10y ago
  "Typically a population either grows exponentially or vanishes." That is, if there don't arise artificial limiting factors, like a cult/religion rule or system that takes control over population's dynamics. When that happens, it may enter in a stable state until an occurring external disruptive change.

At this point I assume only that we've found evidence showing humans got to Australia 40-60k years ago. I suspect they (we?) arrived earlier in smaller numbers that we haven't detected yet.

BurningFrog 10y ago

Typically a population either grows exponentially or vanishes. Remaining small but alive for thousands of years is not entirely unthinkable, but it's very unlikely.

riazrizvi 10y ago
An isolated population seed, yes. But a sub-population that can be re-seeded by the main one, no. Homo Erectus has been discovered as far as SE Asia 1 or 2 million years ago. Also typically a population grows depending on birth-death rates which reach quick limits in places of low resources. This is self-evident from different population sizes in different geographic habitats. Instead human populations mushroomed only in select places. See Guns, Germs and Steel by Diamond for more.
- BurningFrog 10y ago
  Sure, but an unpopulated Australia is hardly a place of low resources. The expansion possibilities would be enormous. Even if your colony is surrounded by impenetrable deserts, I'd think you could always propagate along the coast, living off the ocean. That I'm just some internet guy speculating without any deep knowledge is probably obvious, but let me make it extra clear!
  - flukus 10y ago
    Impenetrable deserts aren't known for their abundance of fresh water. Just having resources available isn't everything either, you have to know how to extract those resources, this is a massive barrier to a primitive (excuse the term) culture landing on an alien continent, separated for millions of years. Living off the ocean is also incredibly dangerous.
dragonwriter 10y ago
> Typically a population either grows exponentially or vanishes. Well, logistically limited by the carrying capacity of the local area with available technology, etc. But logistic growth looks exponential...until it doesn't.
restalis 10y ago
"Typically a population either grows exponentially or vanishes." That is, if there don't arise artificial limiting factors, like a cult/religion rule or system that takes control over population's dynamics. When that happens, it may enter in a stable state until an occurring external disruptive change.