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As you know there is luck (of various types) involved for anyone who has ever gotten anywhere (even if family connections as a separate benefit there is also lu

by gist 10y ago

As you know there is luck (of various types) involved for anyone who has ever gotten anywhere (even if family connections as a separate benefit there is also luck). You have to give Mark credit for doing a good job of snowing and playing Yahoo that does take skill. Look if Steve Jobs had grown up in, say, Iowa USA, had strong family ties that prevented him from even thinking about moving to Silicon Valley, where would he be today? If Bill Gates's mother wasn't on the board of the Red Cross he'd never have the IBM connection that gave him the contract. (Forget as well that he was the right age at the right time as well). Notoriety and wealth is always outsized relative to actual capabilities. Was watching Bloomberg on 60 minutes. Sure Mike is a really smart guy. Worth 40 billion or whatever. But compared to a smart guy who is worth 3 million or in debt he isn't that much smarter (Edit: I mean as a percentage ..). It's always been like this. I am not ever jealous that people have luck and great success. But I am typically annoyed at how other people (press, pundits, media, bloggers) give them accolades that essentially reduce to 'wow this guy is really smart capable' w/o acknowledging any luck at all.

disease 10y ago
You've got me thinking about the interplay of natural ability, hard work, luck and success. How unsuccessful could someone be if they were extremely talented and hard-working, but had little luck. How far can luck push someone with no ability or desire? I suspect luck plays a greater role in our lives then we are willing to admit, even though it can be mitigated to some effect.
- jacquesm 10y ago
  > How unsuccessful could someone be if they were extremely talented and hard-working, but had little luck. Homeless level bad. > How far can luck push someone with no ability or desire? Extremely far. I have seen examples of both, luck is a huge factor, and it comes in many guises (timing, circumstances, meeting the right person and so on).
- froindt 10y ago
  A few days ago there was an interesting comment about luck and survivorship bias: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14165781 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14165781 > How unsuccessful could someone be if they were extremely talented and hard-working, but had little luck. Warren Buffet has a concept called the Ovarian Lottery. Why should someone's kid get gobs of money simply for being born into that family? He hates it, and for that reason isn't leaving billions for his kids, just handfuls of millions. By being born in the US, you've already basically won, as your poverty line would be luxurious in many other countries. If he wasn't born in the US or a handful of other countries, even with the same drive and motivation he had, he wouldn't have been able to be successful like he has been because far more time would be spent seeking out food and basics of living.
  - gist 10y ago
    > He hates it, and for that reason isn't leaving billions for his kids, just handfuls of millions. I wish he would just shut up sometimes and stop being so avuncular and precocious. He is leaving enough money to his kids to be able to have no financial issues and not having to work and be able to enjoy a nice life. And they are also getting a big halo boost just because they are his kids. Make no mistake about that. (I'd take that over $5 million in cash easily..) Also he himself doesn't appear to see much value in all of his billions other than the fame that it gets him. He appears to enjoy it nominally and likes being well know and doing business much better. So he is making a value judgement as well based on what 'floats his boat' personally and marrying it to some concept that makes him appear to be so much like a common man. If money is not that important to him, then why not give it away now and not just to charity?

by gist 10y ago

disease 10y ago

You've got me thinking about the interplay of natural ability, hard work, luck and success. How unsuccessful could someone be if they were extremely talented and hard-working, but had little luck. How far can luck push someone with no ability or desire? I suspect luck plays a greater role in our lives then we are willing to admit, even though it can be mitigated to some effect.

jacquesm 10y ago
> How unsuccessful could someone be if they were extremely talented and hard-working, but had little luck. Homeless level bad. > How far can luck push someone with no ability or desire? Extremely far. I have seen examples of both, luck is a huge factor, and it comes in many guises (timing, circumstances, meeting the right person and so on).
froindt 10y ago
A few days ago there was an interesting comment about luck and survivorship bias: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14165781 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14165781 > How unsuccessful could someone be if they were extremely talented and hard-working, but had little luck. Warren Buffet has a concept called the Ovarian Lottery. Why should someone's kid get gobs of money simply for being born into that family? He hates it, and for that reason isn't leaving billions for his kids, just handfuls of millions. By being born in the US, you've already basically won, as your poverty line would be luxurious in many other countries. If he wasn't born in the US or a handful of other countries, even with the same drive and motivation he had, he wouldn't have been able to be successful like he has been because far more time would be spent seeking out food and basics of living.
- gist 10y ago
  > He hates it, and for that reason isn't leaving billions for his kids, just handfuls of millions. I wish he would just shut up sometimes and stop being so avuncular and precocious. He is leaving enough money to his kids to be able to have no financial issues and not having to work and be able to enjoy a nice life. And they are also getting a big halo boost just because they are his kids. Make no mistake about that. (I'd take that over $5 million in cash easily..) Also he himself doesn't appear to see much value in all of his billions other than the fame that it gets him. He appears to enjoy it nominally and likes being well know and doing business much better. So he is making a value judgement as well based on what 'floats his boat' personally and marrying it to some concept that makes him appear to be so much like a common man. If money is not that important to him, then why not give it away now and not just to charity?