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Wind and solar are non-starters. They're more expensive than coal and they can't cover base load. Nuclear could cover base load but is orders of magnitude more

Wind and solar are non-starters. They're more expensive than coal and they can't cover base load. Nuclear could cover base load but is orders of magnitude more expensive (up-front) than coal. Huge investment, huge regulatory burden, huge political risk. Until recently, we hadn't built a new nuclear plant in the country for decades. [0] Coal is cheap and reliable. Always has been. What's killing coal is low, non-volatile natural gas prices from shale fracking. [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/06/17/the-u-s-is-powering-up-its-first-new-nuclear-reactor-in-decades/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/20...

rybosome 9y ago
So disgusting that the biggest threat to coal is natural gas, yet it's being blamed on environmental regulation. Do Scott Pruitt et. al really believe they're going to juice the economy, or are they cynically handing political favors to their wealthy friends?
shuntress 9y ago
I should have included natural gas. Yes wind/solar/nuclear aren't going to fully replace coal but any share of energy production they pick up is share that coal can't fill. That plus improved efficiency and automation reduces the need for 'coal jobs'. I get that it's not a straight forward as miners plugging their ears and closing their eyes while chanting 'coal is here to stay' but the necessity of coal is shrinking and it is hard for me to attribute the refusal to agree with that to anything other than ignorance.
- dangerlibrary 9y ago
  Absent regulation like a carbon tax that would change the economics substantially, coal is pretty unlikely to disappear completely in our lifetimes. In the short term, there is a lot of regulatory risk involved in natural gas from shale fracking - prices could suddenly skyrocket and having coal as a backup is absolutely essential for power generation companies. In the long term, there is a lot of uncertainty about when utility-scale battery tech, molten salt nuclear, or other base load generation tech will become cost effective on a TCO basis. It's much easier to assume those that disagree with us are ignorant than to assume that we are ignorant of something and seek out alternative explanations for their beliefs. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/29/opinion/nicholas-kristof-how-do-we-increase-empathy.html?_r=0 https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/29/opinion/nicholas-kristof-...
  - shuntress 9y ago
    I do not need a lesson on empathy. "We need less workers to meet the demand for coal." "I don't believe you." Either one is lying or the other is ignorant.
    - dangerlibrary 9y ago
      There is always uncertainty when predicting the future. Reasonable people - especially those who are starting with different assumptions and data - can come to different conclusions about which outcome is most likely.
smohare 9y ago
Coal has vast negative externalities. The toll on health and lost productivity alone are large, not to mention its affects on the climate. http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=12794 http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?Rec...
- dangerlibrary 9y ago
  That's true, and unrelated to the conversation at hand or anything I said. If those externalities were priced in, much of the relative cost description I gave would be wrong. But they aren't. That's not to say they shouldn't be - just that right now the fact is that they aren't.
  - ZeroGravitas 9y ago
    If I worked in an industry, and a new competitor came out that was initially more expensive, but killed less people, I'm not sure I'd be that surprised if my work started to dry up in favor of the less deadly alternative(s). If at least one of the alternatives was cheaper too, then I would surmise the game was up.
    - dangerlibrary 9y ago
      If you were an arms manufacturer you would be thoroughly unconcerned.
      - ben_w 9y ago
        While your witty retort made me laugh, unless you are suggesting that coal power stations are weapons designed to kill people living near them, I think you are missing the point.
        dangerlibrary 9y ago
        I'm suggesting that, pretty much by definition, externalized costs do not get factored into economic decisions.
matt4077 9y ago
Coal production hasn't actually changed that much over the last decades. It has just moved west, and become muh more efficient. (Unfortunately...)
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
jartelt 9y ago
If coal is so great and cheap, then why is no one building new coal plants? Over the past few years wind and solar account for ~40% of new generation capacity and natural gas makes up the rest. Based on your comment, one would expect to either see only natural gas capacity being built out or some mix of natural gas and coal. That is not what is happening and it's because wind and solar are cheaper than coal in several areas of the country.
- dangerlibrary 9y ago
  I feel like you and I don't disagree, but for some reason you think we do. Natural gas is replacing coal for base load generation because it is cheaper. from wind-watch.org: > "How does wind power affect base load? Wind power has no effect on base load. https://www.wind-watch.org/faq-electricity.php https://www.wind-watch.org/faq-electricity.php
  - jartelt 9y ago
    Well, you said wind and solar are more expensive than coal and I am saying they are not (hence why they are being built out like crazy). You seem to be arguing that wind and solar cannot replace coal since there are intermittent. I think that is wrong.
    - dangerlibrary 9y ago
      Okay, cool. When power generation companies demonstrate that you are correct and replace their base load production capacity with solar and wind I will (joyfully) eat crow. That isn't really happening right now, though. Natural gas is replacing coal and non-hydro renewables make up a very small fraction of overall capacity. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_1_02_a https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cf...
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
stale2002 9y ago
Solar power is currently following Moore's law. Prices are cutting in half every 2 years. There is not a whole lot more price cuts that need to happen before Solar is at grid parity, and cheaper than coal. In places like Hawaii it is already way way cheaper than any other available power solution.
- dangerlibrary 9y ago
  In order to cover base load solar + utility scale battery deployments need to be cheaper than a coal plant in terms of TCO. You're not wrong, and of course things like a carbon tax could change the economics substantially, but base load generation is not going to be solved by cheaper panels alone.

rybosome 9y ago

So disgusting that the biggest threat to coal is natural gas, yet it's being blamed on environmental regulation. Do Scott Pruitt et. al really believe they're going to juice the economy, or are they cynically handing political favors to their wealthy friends?

shuntress 9y ago

I should have included natural gas. Yes wind/solar/nuclear aren't going to fully replace coal but any share of energy production they pick up is share that coal can't fill. That plus improved efficiency and automation reduces the need for 'coal jobs'. I get that it's not a straight forward as miners plugging their ears and closing their eyes while chanting 'coal is here to stay' but the necessity of coal is shrinking and it is hard for me to attribute the refusal to agree with that to anything other than ignorance.

dangerlibrary 9y ago
Absent regulation like a carbon tax that would change the economics substantially, coal is pretty unlikely to disappear completely in our lifetimes. In the short term, there is a lot of regulatory risk involved in natural gas from shale fracking - prices could suddenly skyrocket and having coal as a backup is absolutely essential for power generation companies. In the long term, there is a lot of uncertainty about when utility-scale battery tech, molten salt nuclear, or other base load generation tech will become cost effective on a TCO basis. It's much easier to assume those that disagree with us are ignorant than to assume that we are ignorant of something and seek out alternative explanations for their beliefs. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/29/opinion/nicholas-kristof-how-do-we-increase-empathy.html?_r=0 https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/29/opinion/nicholas-kristof-...
- shuntress 9y ago
  I do not need a lesson on empathy. "We need less workers to meet the demand for coal." "I don't believe you." Either one is lying or the other is ignorant.
  - dangerlibrary 9y ago
    There is always uncertainty when predicting the future. Reasonable people - especially those who are starting with different assumptions and data - can come to different conclusions about which outcome is most likely.

smohare 9y ago

Coal has vast negative externalities. The toll on health and lost productivity alone are large, not to mention its affects on the climate. http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=12794 http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?Rec...

dangerlibrary 9y ago
That's true, and unrelated to the conversation at hand or anything I said. If those externalities were priced in, much of the relative cost description I gave would be wrong. But they aren't. That's not to say they shouldn't be - just that right now the fact is that they aren't.
- ZeroGravitas 9y ago
  If I worked in an industry, and a new competitor came out that was initially more expensive, but killed less people, I'm not sure I'd be that surprised if my work started to dry up in favor of the less deadly alternative(s). If at least one of the alternatives was cheaper too, then I would surmise the game was up.
  - dangerlibrary 9y ago
    If you were an arms manufacturer you would be thoroughly unconcerned.
    - ben_w 9y ago
      While your witty retort made me laugh, unless you are suggesting that coal power stations are weapons designed to kill people living near them, I think you are missing the point.
      - dangerlibrary 9y ago
        I'm suggesting that, pretty much by definition, externalized costs do not get factored into economic decisions.

matt4077 9y ago

Coal production hasn't actually changed that much over the last decades. It has just moved west, and become muh more efficient. (Unfortunately...)

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]

jartelt 9y ago

If coal is so great and cheap, then why is no one building new coal plants? Over the past few years wind and solar account for ~40% of new generation capacity and natural gas makes up the rest. Based on your comment, one would expect to either see only natural gas capacity being built out or some mix of natural gas and coal. That is not what is happening and it's because wind and solar are cheaper than coal in several areas of the country.

dangerlibrary 9y ago
I feel like you and I don't disagree, but for some reason you think we do. Natural gas is replacing coal for base load generation because it is cheaper. from wind-watch.org: > "How does wind power affect base load? Wind power has no effect on base load. https://www.wind-watch.org/faq-electricity.php https://www.wind-watch.org/faq-electricity.php
- jartelt 9y ago
  Well, you said wind and solar are more expensive than coal and I am saying they are not (hence why they are being built out like crazy). You seem to be arguing that wind and solar cannot replace coal since there are intermittent. I think that is wrong.
  - dangerlibrary 9y ago
    Okay, cool. When power generation companies demonstrate that you are correct and replace their base load production capacity with solar and wind I will (joyfully) eat crow. That isn't really happening right now, though. Natural gas is replacing coal and non-hydro renewables make up a very small fraction of overall capacity. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_1_02_a https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cf...
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]

stale2002 9y ago

Solar power is currently following Moore's law. Prices are cutting in half every 2 years. There is not a whole lot more price cuts that need to happen before Solar is at grid parity, and cheaper than coal. In places like Hawaii it is already way way cheaper than any other available power solution.

dangerlibrary 9y ago
In order to cover base load solar + utility scale battery deployments need to be cheaper than a coal plant in terms of TCO. You're not wrong, and of course things like a carbon tax could change the economics substantially, but base load generation is not going to be solved by cheaper panels alone.