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For about a century, coal has been the cheapest, most reliable fuel for utility-scale power generation. For most of the eastern seaboard, coal has only been sup
by dangerlibrary 9y ago
For about a century, coal has been the cheapest, most reliable fuel for utility-scale power generation. For most of the eastern seaboard, coal has only been supplanted by natural gas (slowly) over the last ten years. Competing fuel price fluctuations dictated the change. Natural gas prices before fracking were both higher and much more volatile. There have been periods of ebb and flow that many workers and their families have managed to "wait out" in the past.
Further, if you've lived your entire life in a coal town, the sheer scale of the plants, mines, railroads, and other infrastructure can make them seem permanent, reliable. It is very difficult to imagine so much specialized infrastructure simply ... going away.
Imagine if you had spent your entire life as a datacenter tech, as had your father. You knew the business inside and out, understood the network of suppliers, the customers, the hardware, everything. You've gotten into arguments about different rack configurations and which you prefer to work on. This is your career. You got into this business because it would provide a stable life for you and your family, and you were damn good at it. Then people started telling you that we would no longer need datacenters - at all - in 5 years because there were now cheaper, better alternatives. You wouldn't believe them.
- shuntress 9y agoWhy shouldn't I believe them? Assuming they are pointing to the datacenter equivalents of wind/solar/nuclear energy as the reason why datacenter use is shrinking. Edit: Did you mean to imply that Coal is not actually going away because the 'cheaper alternatives' are fake?
- dangerlibrary 9y agoWind and solar are non-starters. They're more expensive than coal and they can't cover base load. Nuclear could cover base load but is orders of magnitude more expensive (up-front) than coal. Huge investment, huge regulatory burden, huge political risk. Until recently, we hadn't built a new nuclear plant in the country for decades. [0] Coal is cheap and reliable. Always has been. What's killing coal is low, non-volatile natural gas prices from shale fracking. [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/06/17/the-u-s-is-powering-up-its-first-new-nuclear-reactor-in-decades/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/20...
- rybosome 9y agoSo disgusting that the biggest threat to coal is natural gas, yet it's being blamed on environmental regulation. Do Scott Pruitt et. al really believe they're going to juice the economy, or are they cynically handing political favors to their wealthy friends?
- shuntress 9y agoI should have included natural gas. Yes wind/solar/nuclear aren't going to fully replace coal but any share of energy production they pick up is share that coal can't fill. That plus improved efficiency and automation reduces the need for 'coal jobs'. I get that it's not a straight forward as miners plugging their ears and closing their eyes while chanting 'coal is here to stay' but the necessity of coal is shrinking and it is hard for me to attribute the refusal to agree with that to anything other than ignorance.
- dangerlibrary 9y agoAbsent regulation like a carbon tax that would change the economics substantially, coal is pretty unlikely to disappear completely in our lifetimes. In the short term, there is a lot of regulatory risk involved in natural gas from shale fracking - prices could suddenly skyrocket and having coal as a backup is absolutely essential for power generation companies. In the long term, there is a lot of uncertainty about when utility-scale battery tech, molten salt nuclear, or other base load generation tech will become cost effective on a TCO basis. It's much easier to assume those that disagree with us are ignorant than to assume that we are ignorant of something and seek out alternative explanations for their beliefs. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/29/opinion/nicholas-kristof-how-do-we-increase-empathy.html?_r=0 https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/29/opinion/nicholas-kristof-...
- shuntress 9y agoI do not need a lesson on empathy. "We need less workers to meet the demand for coal." "I don't believe you." Either one is lying or the other is ignorant.
- uxp100 9y agoMainly Natural Gas. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/0?agg=2,0,1&fuel=vtvv&geo=g&sec=g&linechart=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.Q~ELEC.GEN.COW-US-99.Q~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-99.Q~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-99.Q~ELEC.GEN.HYC-US-99.Q~ELEC.GEN.WND-US-99.Q~ELEC.GEN.TSN-US-99.Q&columnchart=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.Q~ELEC.GEN.COW-US-99.Q~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-99.Q~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-99.Q~ELEC.GEN.HYC-US-99.Q~ELEC.GEN.WND-US-99.Q&map=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.Q&freq=Q&ctype=linechart<ype=pin&rtype=s&maptype=0&rse=0&pin= https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/0?agg=2...
- cubano 9y agoThe EIA needs to work on responsive web design.