3 ms·

This and the OP both discount the small, but very real possibility of conflict escalation with China, completely unintended by both sides. If China enters milit

by tcoppi 9y ago

This and the OP both discount the small, but very real possibility of conflict escalation with China, completely unintended by both sides. If China enters militarily(big if, given recent statements) on the side of DPRK and the conflict has escalated to using nukes, it will be very hard for it to not spiral out of control into a full-on regional, if not worldwide, war.

smacktoward 9y ago
It's important to note as well that Chinese intervention isn't a binary, fully-on or fully-off kind of thing; it's possible to imagine various degrees of intervention. One that seems likely to me in this kind of scenario, for instance, would be for Chinese forces to move in to uphold the integrity of the pre-war border. Allied forces would be free to push the North Koreans out of South Korean territory; but if they tried to push beyond that towards Korean reunification or some kind of territorial gain at the North's expense, they'd have to fight Chinese troops to do it. This would let the Chinese get involved but still pose as a neutral arbitrator rather than a direct combatant or contributor to escalation, since their nominal goal would be resumption of the status quo ante bellum.
- tcoppi 9y ago
  I think this is probably how the Chinese intervention, if they choose to intervene, would start, to restore the current DPRK/ROK border after a ROK/US incursion into the North. It seems likely that if that happens, DPRK would escalate with nukes in order to force China's hand into full intervention on their behalf, as USA's current doctrine, to the best of unclass knowledge, is to respond in kind to nuclear aggression. Once that happens all bets are off, unfortunately. I don't see how it ends well for anyone once China decides to get involved, given the current doctrines and state of military technology.

3 ms·

This and the OP both discount the small, but very real possibility of conflict escalation with China, completely unintended by both sides. If China enters milit

by tcoppi 9y ago

smacktoward 9y ago
It's important to note as well that Chinese intervention isn't a binary, fully-on or fully-off kind of thing; it's possible to imagine various degrees of intervention. One that seems likely to me in this kind of scenario, for instance, would be for Chinese forces to move in to uphold the integrity of the pre-war border. Allied forces would be free to push the North Koreans out of South Korean territory; but if they tried to push beyond that towards Korean reunification or some kind of territorial gain at the North's expense, they'd have to fight Chinese troops to do it. This would let the Chinese get involved but still pose as a neutral arbitrator rather than a direct combatant or contributor to escalation, since their nominal goal would be resumption of the status quo ante bellum.
- tcoppi 9y ago
  I think this is probably how the Chinese intervention, if they choose to intervene, would start, to restore the current DPRK/ROK border after a ROK/US incursion into the North. It seems likely that if that happens, DPRK would escalate with nukes in order to force China's hand into full intervention on their behalf, as USA's current doctrine, to the best of unclass knowledge, is to respond in kind to nuclear aggression. Once that happens all bets are off, unfortunately. I don't see how it ends well for anyone once China decides to get involved, given the current doctrines and state of military technology.