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Quote from him ca 2006 - we haven't seen a nationwide housing bubble. Predicting is hard, even if you have tons of data. Greenspan used to take long hot baths (
by rodionos 9y ago
Quote from him ca 2006 - we haven't seen a nationwide housing bubble. Predicting is hard, even if you have tons of data. Greenspan used to take long hot baths (according to his book I read) to finalize the estimates. Guess what, he was really good at it.
- ptaipale 9y agoAlan Greenspan, you mean?
- rodionos 9y agoYes, Alan Greenspan, the former fed chairman. Just a typo.
- jonwachob91 9y agoHe said the same thing in his book "Courage to Act". I genuinely believed it until I read "The Short". You didn't have to have tons of data to predict the bubble, you just had to take the time to read the loans. Everyone saw this bubble long before Bernanke did.
- wozniacki 9y agoI genuinely believed it until I read "The Short" You mean Michael Lewis' "The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine"? [1] [1] http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/26889576-the-big-short http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/26889576-the-big-short
- bryanlarsen 9y agoEverybody saw the bubble, it made the cover of the Economist many times in the 4 years before the crash. The hard part is predicting when and how it would pop, and nobody could do that. Tons of people lost their shirts shorting against the bubble. They weren't wrong, just early. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes The how was important -- everybody acknowledged that the market was in a bubble, but many people predicted that it wouldn't pop catastrophically as it did.
- justinzollars 9y agofound it! http://www.economist.com/node/4079027 http://www.economist.com/node/4079027 they def called that one. "Interest-only loans"