3 ms·
I built a quick model to compare IRR of contributions vs. benefits using the numbers in the Bloomberg article and income distribution reports[1]. With some mas
by basseq 9y ago
I built a quick model to compare IRR of contributions vs. benefits using the numbers in the Bloomberg article and income distribution reports[1].
With some massive assumptions (that I can enumerate if anyone is interested), the Bottom 20% quintile gets a 6.5% IRR on lifetime benefits vs. contributions. The Top 20%, by comparison, gets a 1.7% IRR. So despite "the rich taking more", the system is still very progressive. Just, perhaps, not quite as progressive as it used to be—but certainly not "proportionate" or "disproportionate" in favor of the wealth.
To give you a sense, had a Top 20%-er turning 65 in 2016 invested his or her SS contributions over the years in a Dow Jones Index Fund, the value of their investment would be $1.1M... versus the $290k lifetime benefit they would receive from the government. (It's pretty much a wash for a Bottom 20%-er: their DJI investment would be worth $136k vs. $130k in SS Lifetime Benefits).
[1] https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/113th-congress-2013-2014/reports/49440-Distribution-of-Income-and-Taxes-2.pdf https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/113th-congress-2013-...
- basseq 9y agoOh, and for those who are thinking, "Huh, 6.5% return is pretty good", remember that's based on individual contributions alone. Your employer contributes the same amount on your behalf. Meaning that for a Top 20%-er, you and your employer are contributing more than you will see back in absolute dollars (ignoring inflation, which makes it worse—you and your employer give me $1 in 1970s dollars and I give you $0.90 in 2017 dollars).