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He's right, but so many tiny startups aren't overvalued and they won't tank. Also, I find it hard to imagine an event that would lead to a collapse. It's not li
by ivankirigin 19y ago
He's right, but so many tiny startups aren't overvalued and they won't tank. Also, I find it hard to imagine an event that would lead to a collapse. It's not like there are tons of IPOs that can dry up.
The interesting part is the diff between now and then. The availability of easy money can change fast. Unless there is a very large collapse in the dollar, most startups wouldn't be affected by the marginal changes in consumer behavior.
- tom_rath 19y agoWhat about the significant drop in ad spending which occurs in every recession? Or is it "different this time" like in 2000?
- ivankirigin 19y agoI'm probably biased because Tipjoy isn't affected in the least by a drop in spending in Ads. We're probably boosted, all things being equal. Consumer frugality would certainly affect us though. Your business model shouldn't change on the margins. A slow or fast season in Ads won't make a typical business die or become viable.
- pchristensen 19y agoOtherwise you would be, by definition, a marginal business, and that's not a good place to be (again by definition, the first one to die when things go bad).
- parker 19y agoWell, one thing a recession and resulting drop in ad revenue will do is slow down acquisitions by large public companies of small private companies that are still experiencing 'notional' revenue (ie with no business model). Startups that are built on a feature rather than a business will find it harder to identify any takers. And less startups being bought will result in less entrepreneurs taking the plunge to start... not so much a collapse of the startup ecosystem, but a localized minimum inside of it.