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>> which very much benefits the American economy I think the overall effect is going to be a little different than what you imagine. Unless you are imagining a

>> which very much benefits the American economy I think the overall effect is going to be a little different than what you imagine. Unless you are imagining a future where people who think a programmer is an "anomalously high-cost peon who types some mumbo-jumbo into some other mumbo-jumbo" [1] suddenly realize they are wrong and develop a profound appreciation of their services. This is going to play out not too different from what happens when the minimum wage is raised, except at a higher level. Average person expects: everyone will get paid more. Actual effect: less employment overall in the economy. Average person expects: companies will be forced to hire local. Actual effect: a more active search for SaaS which doesn't have insurance overheads and doesn't complain to your HR department, and certainly won't threaten to complain to the great Donald when its services are terminated. Average person expects: much better treatment of programmers by non-programmers. Actual effect: Ah ha ha ha... Average person expects: much fairer and more equitable distribution of wealth. Actual effect: Because of the reasons mentioned above, even greater distortions, resentment against the ones who have the best paying jobs, the creation of "inside vs outside" class systems, government intervention to "fix" this problem which will make things worse. Be careful what you wish for... [1] http://www.kalzumeus.com/2011/10/28/dont-call-yourself-a-programmer/ http://www.kalzumeus.com/2011/10/28/dont-call-yourself-a-pro...

estro 9y ago
This. It's easy to assume the tech employment environment will improve by holding all other variables constant, ex. the total number of jobs, but in reality the up-front cost offset by hiring cheap labor will continue to be offset via other means, ex. SaaS instead of employees.
- ganoushoreilly 9y ago
  Isn't that the goal of a business though, optimize profitability and reduce costs. If migration to an SaaS platform is cheaper and more efficient, then i'd be more concerned if a business didn't move to it. I'm seeing a lot of commentary that seems to imply a business has a responsibility to create jobs and i'm genuinely perplexed where it comes from.
Spooky23 9y ago
Sending the work abroad is a better way to solve the problem -- that will attract more outrage, and more regulation.
TheBobinator 9y ago
Programming has not really progressed as a science since the 90's. There are 3 items that are keeping the entire IT Market and technology in general from progressing. 1: Overtime exemptions. Management has zero incentive to hire experts and drive labor costs out of projects, which in turn hides those labor costs. You get lots of unpaid OT and tremendous immeasurable technical debt that managers spit-shine and pass onto the next investor or manager. 2: IT employee's can't work freelance due to IRS Tax rules that they are an employee and not a contractor which creates both criminal and civil liabilities for managers. Remember the programmer who crashed his Cessna into an IRS Building? This was why. 3: Anti-Labor market policies. H1B's, allowing silicon valley corps to enter into agreements not to poach each others employee's, and so forth. Today, the IT market is 10% actual people who can program, architect, manage and in hack in general, 20% maintainers who spit shine the solutions and keep them running, and the remainder are empty bodies in a position who know almost nothing or just barely enough to do their jobs but if you throw anything outside of that very narrow expertise at them they disintegrate. The entire market, from education bodies straight up to the c-level execs and investors, encourage this as high-tech is the new whip used on the working man to run bubble after bubble and make money. In that environment, the real hackers make decent money but have to be careful to continue progressing their craft. Everyone else has to fuck or be fucked.
- ForHackernews 9y ago
  > IT employee's can't work freelance due to IRS Tax rules that they are an employee and not a contractor which creates both criminal and civil liabilities for managers. Can you cite a source? I have never heard anything about this. I have known many devs who take on freelance side projects, though obviously it depends on the particulars of their employment contract.
luckydata 9y ago
I'm pretty skeptical about your claims. You start with dubious claims about minimum wage increases driving down employment which has never been proven (the contrary has been observed in natural experiments). So, not very worried.
chillwaves 9y ago
So I largely agree with this analysis but what is missing is any proposed remedy. Medicare for all certainly seems like one substantive way to address your comment. Can you do an "expectations vs reality" for that one?
toast0 9y ago
Honestly, all I expect if this type of h1b abuse is reduced is that the visa cap won't be 3x oversubscribed on the first day. The total cap is less than 100,000, so it's a very small part of the overall labor force and even a big change in h1b policies isn't going to have a major change on the rest of the market.
- Clubber 9y ago
  Yes, but H1B can stay 6 years, so it's not just 100K, it's 100K x 6, or 600K.
  - toast0 9y ago
    600k is still small compared to the total labor market of 100M+
    - Clubber 9y ago
      There's only 6-7 million tech workers in the US, so that's around 10%. Here's a link I found on STEM statistics: http://dpeaflcio.org/programs-publications/issue-fact-sheets/the-stem-workforce-an-occupational-overview/ http://dpeaflcio.org/programs-publications/issue-fact-sheets...
      - nojvek 9y ago
        I still think stopping Abuse is the right thing to do for all the talented Indians who get stuck on H1B forever.
        Clubber 9y ago
        Absolutely. It's the Tata's that ruin it for everyone. US agencies did a piss poor job of keeping them in check, or they were told to look the other way by Clinton/Bush/Obama. Either way, I think salaries will be going up for all tech people, H1B and domestic. Also, it should be a lot easier for new graduates to get their foot in the door. This is a long time coming.

estro 9y ago

This. It's easy to assume the tech employment environment will improve by holding all other variables constant, ex. the total number of jobs, but in reality the up-front cost offset by hiring cheap labor will continue to be offset via other means, ex. SaaS instead of employees.

ganoushoreilly 9y ago
Isn't that the goal of a business though, optimize profitability and reduce costs. If migration to an SaaS platform is cheaper and more efficient, then i'd be more concerned if a business didn't move to it. I'm seeing a lot of commentary that seems to imply a business has a responsibility to create jobs and i'm genuinely perplexed where it comes from.

Spooky23 9y ago

Sending the work abroad is a better way to solve the problem -- that will attract more outrage, and more regulation.

TheBobinator 9y ago

Programming has not really progressed as a science since the 90's. There are 3 items that are keeping the entire IT Market and technology in general from progressing. 1: Overtime exemptions. Management has zero incentive to hire experts and drive labor costs out of projects, which in turn hides those labor costs. You get lots of unpaid OT and tremendous immeasurable technical debt that managers spit-shine and pass onto the next investor or manager. 2: IT employee's can't work freelance due to IRS Tax rules that they are an employee and not a contractor which creates both criminal and civil liabilities for managers. Remember the programmer who crashed his Cessna into an IRS Building? This was why. 3: Anti-Labor market policies. H1B's, allowing silicon valley corps to enter into agreements not to poach each others employee's, and so forth. Today, the IT market is 10% actual people who can program, architect, manage and in hack in general, 20% maintainers who spit shine the solutions and keep them running, and the remainder are empty bodies in a position who know almost nothing or just barely enough to do their jobs but if you throw anything outside of that very narrow expertise at them they disintegrate. The entire market, from education bodies straight up to the c-level execs and investors, encourage this as high-tech is the new whip used on the working man to run bubble after bubble and make money. In that environment, the real hackers make decent money but have to be careful to continue progressing their craft. Everyone else has to fuck or be fucked.

ForHackernews 9y ago
> IT employee's can't work freelance due to IRS Tax rules that they are an employee and not a contractor which creates both criminal and civil liabilities for managers. Can you cite a source? I have never heard anything about this. I have known many devs who take on freelance side projects, though obviously it depends on the particulars of their employment contract.

luckydata 9y ago

I'm pretty skeptical about your claims. You start with dubious claims about minimum wage increases driving down employment which has never been proven (the contrary has been observed in natural experiments). So, not very worried.

chillwaves 9y ago

So I largely agree with this analysis but what is missing is any proposed remedy. Medicare for all certainly seems like one substantive way to address your comment. Can you do an "expectations vs reality" for that one?

toast0 9y ago

Honestly, all I expect if this type of h1b abuse is reduced is that the visa cap won't be 3x oversubscribed on the first day. The total cap is less than 100,000, so it's a very small part of the overall labor force and even a big change in h1b policies isn't going to have a major change on the rest of the market.

Clubber 9y ago
Yes, but H1B can stay 6 years, so it's not just 100K, it's 100K x 6, or 600K.
- toast0 9y ago
  600k is still small compared to the total labor market of 100M+
  - Clubber 9y ago
    There's only 6-7 million tech workers in the US, so that's around 10%. Here's a link I found on STEM statistics: http://dpeaflcio.org/programs-publications/issue-fact-sheets/the-stem-workforce-an-occupational-overview/ http://dpeaflcio.org/programs-publications/issue-fact-sheets...
    - nojvek 9y ago
      I still think stopping Abuse is the right thing to do for all the talented Indians who get stuck on H1B forever.
      - Clubber 9y ago
        Absolutely. It's the Tata's that ruin it for everyone. US agencies did a piss poor job of keeping them in check, or they were told to look the other way by Clinton/Bush/Obama. Either way, I think salaries will be going up for all tech people, H1B and domestic. Also, it should be a lot easier for new graduates to get their foot in the door. This is a long time coming.