I understood the author to be saying that the market doesn't have the ability to predict out beyond 10 years. The ~10 year prediction for AAPL and GOOG is less

I understood the author to be saying that the market doesn't have the ability to predict out beyond 10 years. The ~10 year prediction for AAPL and GOOG is less of an indication that those 2 companies will fall off a cliff in 10 and more of an indication that in that timeframe the businesses/economic environment could change, or maybe that they're discounting future cashflows very heavily in an uncertain rate environment. On the contrary, < 4 years for MSFT is potentially within the ability of the market to predict and more likely an indication that the market actually believes that MSFT on its current trajectory won't hack it. A lot of people might agree that trends in open source software, distributing computing away from home PCs to cloud applications, and their inability to compete effectively for search or hardware makes their CURRENT business a dying one. On the other hand, MSFT has smart people and money and I wouldn't doubt their ability to reinvent themselves and start competing in new markets.