This post is super-linkbait. "The market is perfectly aware that a lot changes in 10 years, and so they heavily discount any projections out that far. But the

This post is super-linkbait. "The market is perfectly aware that a lot changes in 10 years, and so they heavily discount any projections out that far. But the market is more likely to be correct for near events." Oh come on. 10 years is discounted but 4 years is a near event? The market can't reliably predict earnings a few quarters ahead of time. "Microsoft's market cap is 221 B, their book value is 46 B, and therefore 175 B of their market cap is projected future earnings. Their current profit is 46.28 B/year, and that works out to the market valuing them at their current earnings stream projected over a bit under 4 years." does not equal "the stock market believes Microsoft will be bankrupt in four years."