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It's indeed worth to take survivorship bias into account. But if you put too much emphasis on survivorship bias then you would think that everything is complet
by hal9000xp 9y ago
It's indeed worth to take survivorship bias into account.
But if you put too much emphasis on survivorship bias then you would think that everything is completely random and use "survivorship bias" argument as an excuse to do nothing.
I'm highly recommend to listen Peter Thiel's speech "You are not a lottery ticket":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZM_JmZdqCw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZM_JmZdqCw
- raverbashing 9y agoAbsolutely Biases and fallacies (up to a point) are not end-all. Gambler's fallacy makes sense if you're throwing dice, not if you're improving yourself, trying different things and walking the distance Here's the thing with survivorship bias, they might not answer with something that's a guarantee of success (because nothing is), but they won't answer with something that's catastrophic.
- reallydontask 9y agoI might be reading your comment wrong, but survivorship bias can lead you to do catastrophic things, that is the whole point of the comic.
- ekianjo 9y agoyes, but for about everything that happens to you there are probably a large number of variables one is not conscious of and pretending otherwise is just wrong. There is no way to replicate one's experiences with a b testing.
- jacquesm 9y agoPeter Thiel should be the last person on earth to argue against survivorship bias, being an excellent example of it himself.
- backpropaganda 9y agoPeter Thiel isn't arguing for startups here, but arguing against the idea that the world is just coin flips and some people randomly end up with 10 heads. So your comment is mostly ad hominem.
- jacquesm 9y agoHe can only argue for that with a platform because he ended up with 10 heads. So no, it is not an ad hominem, it goes for anybody in that position, but also for Peter Thiel. What's the last time you met a poor person giving seminars on the world not just being coinflips? You can improve the odds by hard work and trying to grasp whatever opportunities come your way. But it would be a terrible mistake to assume that that would lead to a specific outcome given the number of hidden variables.
- vixen99 9y agoPoor people, focusing on survival, don't have the time and wherewithal to give seminars.
- jacquesm 9y agoI hear giving seminars pay really well. Do those poor people have time enough to go to those seminars as audience?
- alejohausner 9y ago> What's the last time you met a poor person giving seminars on the world not just being coinflips? Well said. I think I'll add this to my .sig .
- acdha 9y agoIn addition to jacquesm's debunking this claim, it's important remember that in addition to having been extremely lucky himself, Thiel isn't some retired bystander but rather someone with significant business interests based on a continued stream of talented people trying the startup lottery. A VC is about as far from a neutral voice on this topic as it's possible to get.
- stdbrouw 9y ago> But if you put too much emphasis on survivorship bias then you would think that everything is completely random and use "survivorship bias" argument as an excuse to do nothing. No, what you would do is you would try to figure out how to get more information on those who didn't "survive" so you can make fair comparisons.