Snapchat would have to lose ~90% of its value to make the Facebook buyout offer better than the IPO decision. Even during the GFC, the NYSE only lost 50% of it

Snapchat would have to lose ~90% of its value to make the Facebook buyout offer better than the IPO decision. Even during the GFC, the NYSE only lost 50% of its value. Measuring Snapchat's decision to refuse a buy-out is simple: The investors, founders, and employees all have more money now than they would have had if they had sold. This will be completely confirmed in roughly 100 days (once the lock-up expires), as long as their stock price is above ~$2.50 on August 1st, they're vindicated. You could make the analysis more complicated with opportunity cost calculations or assumptions about whether they would have received Facebook stock (which has appreciated a fair amount since the buyout offer) but those are all marginal concerns.