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I wonder about this too. I lean towards the side that this is just storytelling in hindsight, but hedge by reading the blog posts every so often. The best way t
by lordgrenville 10y ago
I wonder about this too. I lean towards the side that this is just storytelling in hindsight, but hedge by reading the blog posts every so often. The best way to test this would be to check his history for predictions (or statements that can be adapted into predictions) and see if they turned out.
Of course, anyone who could make business predictions with certainty would be starting businesses, not consulting. Perhaps there's still some value in just being able to create taxonomies from past events, as long as they're consistent.
- xiaoma 10y agoAn even better metric is someone who publicly makes investments. An excellent non-VC example of this is David Gardener of the The Motley Fool, who publicly announced his stock purchases and rationale before making them. He bought AOL in 1994, Amazon in 1997, Amgen and Starbucks in 1998 and eBay in 1999. In many cases the trades were unpopular for a year or two but you can be sure that his analysis of businesses has carried great weight ever since. It inspired me to take public positions for many years afterward. While my returns weren't quite as good as his, I learned a ton and absolutely crushed the market for 7 years until getting reckless with margin and learning a less pleasant lesson. I'm not sure if this blog makes many actual predictions but if so it would be very instructive to track them.